Question

Are the results of these studies ambiguous regarding impacts?
You are here: Home / Pathfinder / Identifying adaptation needs / Impacts or capacity / Impact analysis

Are the results of these studies ambiguous regarding impacts?

When a significant number of studies have been undertaken, incorporating the range of possible scenarios, you must consider whether the results of these studies are ambiguous with different studies obtaining differing, and possibly conflicting results.  Climate change impacts may be characterised by deep uncertainty, in some cases, because there is competing knowledge on how to project impacts and outcomes of adaptation actions. Disagreement, or competing scientific claims, may arise in regards to global projections of climate or with respect to impact models at different scales. In these cases, it may be advisable to seek to build consensus amongst experts using approaches like the Delphi method (see the Toolbox section on Participatory methods for vulnerability assessment).

When this ambiguity is not present or once it has been addressed through consulting domain experts, you may move on to the next stage and consider identifying and choosing adaptation measures and options.

AP interactive decision tree - click any node to select it

When a significant number of studies have been undertaken, incorporating the range of possible scenarios, you must consider whether the results of these studies are ambiguous with different studies obtaining differing, and possibly conflicting results.  Climate change impacts may be characterised by deep uncertainty, in some cases, because there is competing knowledge on how to project impacts and outcomes of adaptation actions. Disagreement, or competing scientific claims, may arise in regards to global projections of climate or with respect to impact models at different scales. In these cases, it may be advisable to seek to build consensus amongst experts using approaches like the Delphi method (see the Toolbox section on Participatory methods for vulnerability assessment).

When this ambiguity is not present or once it has been addressed through consulting domain experts, you may move on to the next stage and consider identifying and choosing adaptation measures and options.

  • Pathfinder overview diagram
References AP home Glossary

This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document

Criteria checklist

1. You want to assess vulnerability.
2. Your focus is on impacts.
3. Studies on future impacts are available.
4. The available studies are comprehensive and credible.
5. As a next step you are faced with the question whether the results of the studies are ambiguous regarding impacts.