Question

Are impact models available to simulate future impacts?
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Are impact models available to simulate future impacts?

If studies on future impacts are not readily available, the next relevant question is whether there are impact models available for exploring the given adaptation challenge. When this is the case, modeling of future impacts may be carried out and it is then important to consider how to treat adaptation in applying modeling methods. If there are no impact models available a method has to be selected based on data availability on observed impacts.

AP interactive decision tree - click any node to select it

If credible studies on future impacts are not readily available, the next relevant decision node concerns whether there are impact models available for exploring the given adaptation challenge.

When impact models are available, impact projection may be carried out. When no impact models are available, then impact analysis should consider existing data on impacts and their attribution to climate and social factors.

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References AP home Glossary

This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document

Criteria checklist

1. You want to assess vulnerability.
2. Your focus is on impacts.
3. Either no studies on future impacts are available, or available studies are not comprehensive or credible.
4. As a next step you are faced with the question whether impact models are available that can be used to simulate future impacts.