You are here: Home / Pathfinder / Identifying adaptation needs / Impacts or capacity / Impact analysis

Is data available on observed impacts?


In the case that impact models are not available, analysis needs to focus on current impacts through trend detection and impact attribution or through vulnerability indication. The difference between impact attribution and vulnerability indication methods being that the former require data on observed impacts while the latter are only applied in the absence of such data.

When little or no data on impacts is available, then impact analysis cannot be carried further and your identification of vulnerability and risks must rely on capacity analysis (see the decision tree on choosing approaches to capacity analysis and the Toolbox section on Vulnerability indication)..

AP interactive decision tree - click any node to select it

In the case that impact models are not available, future impacts cannot be projected and analysis needs to focus on current impacts through trend detection and impact attribution or through vulnerability indication. The difference between impact attribution and vulnerability indication methods being that the former require data on observed impacts while the latter are only applied in the absence of such data (Hinkel and Bisaro, 2013a).

When little or no data on impacts is available, then impact analysis cannot be carried further and the identification of vulnerability must rely on vulnerability and capacity indication (see the decision tree on choosing approaches to capacity analysis and the Toolbox section on Vulnerability indication).



This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document


Criteria checklist

1. You want to assess vulnerability.
2. Your focus is on impacts.
3. Either no studies on future impacts are available, or available studies are not comprehensive or credible.
4. Impact models to simulate future impacts are not available.
5. As a next step you are faced with the question whether data on observed impacts is available.