In the case that impact models are not available, future impacts cannot be
projected and analysis needs to focus on current impacts through trend
detection and impact attribution or through vulnerability indication.
The difference between impact attribution and vulnerability indication
methods being that the former require data on observed impacts while
the latter are only applied in the absence of such data (Hinkel and
Bisaro, 2013a).
When little or no data on
impacts is available, then impact analysis cannot be carried further
and the identification of vulnerability must rely on vulnerability and
capacity indication (see the decision
tree on choosing approaches to capacity analysis and the
Toolbox section on Vulnerability
indication).
This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document |
1. | You want to assess vulnerability. | |
2. | Your focus is on impacts. | |
3. | Either no studies on future impacts are available, or available studies are not comprehensive or credible. | |
4. | Impact models to simulate future impacts are not available. | |
5. | As a next step you are faced with the question whether data on observed impacts is available. |