Once preferences have been
harmonised, the next consideration is whether to apply formal
approaches or deliberative approaches or both. There are a number of
criteria that are relevant here. These should be considered as
tentative criteria, as it is difficult to give clearcut criteria for
choosing either formal or deliberative decision appraisal methods.
Often both deliberative and formal methods may be equally relevant
within a given adaptation decision. In order for formalisation to be
appropriate a decision must be well-defined. A decision is well-defined
and can be formalized under a following conditions:
- A
decision among a set of options (also called alternatives, strategies,
actions) has been identified. Notably, the identification of
this set is not addressed by decisionanalytical methods.
- Outcomes
of implementing options are known, that is they have been
computed using either methods of risk assessment for present
climate extreme event risks or residual impact projection
methods for future climate (both slow onset and
extremeevent). In the former case, outcomes may be expressed
either probabilistically (with a likelihood of occurrence) or
via scenarios (without a likelihood of occurrence). In
the later case outcomes may only be represented via scenarios
as probabilities cannot be associated to different pathways of
socio-economic development and associated emission scenarios,
which drive climate change and its impacts.
- Outcomes
are characterised by one or several attributes (also called
metrics, criteria, values), where at least one attribute
describes the costs of planning and implementing an option.
- A
baseline, which is a “do nothing” option against
which to measure the values of the attributes can be
established.
In general, further
criteria to be fulfilled for formal decision appraisal to be
appropriate are summarised in Table 2.7. These criteria relate to the
feasibility and cost of formalizing a decision. Formalising a decision
requires being able to translate the “real-world”
complexity into the canonical form that formal methods rely on: one
decision among a set of options (also called alternatives, strategies,
actions) with each option being characterised by a set of attributes
(also called metrics, criteria, values). The attributes describe both
the costs of implementing an option as well as cost and benefits of the
outcomes of implementing options. For decisions that are not
well-defined and are interconnected to other decisions this might be
difficult to do or the costs of information gathering and processing
might be prohibitively high. It may then be appropriate to make
individual decisions informally on the basis of intuition.
Empirical criteria | Formal
appraisal | Intuitive/deliberative appraisal |
---|
Ambiguity on options, outcomes
and baselines) | Low | High |
---|
Interconnectedness of decisions | Low | High |
---|
Information gathering and processing
costs | Low | High |
---|
Importance of money in decision | High | Low |
---|
Experience on similar decisions
with immediate feedback. | Low | High |
---|
Table 2.7: Criteria relevant to
selecting formal or informal methods for appraising options.
Finally,
a further important criteria for applying formal decision making
methods is that they are often prescribed by the policy or legal
context.