Question

Are there risks (and opportunities) due to current climate variability?
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Are there risks (and opportunities) due to current climate variability?

Once outcomes of options and monetary valuation of relevant outcome attributes are known, your task is that of choosing amongst options, or deciding. This decision tree presents criteria for choosing which formal decision making methods may be appropriate for a given adaptation challenge. The characteristics of the challenge relevant for this decision tree are those of the set of available adaptation options and the type of knowledge available on the hazard, impacts and outcomes of options. This decision tree is slightly more complex as the same decision nodes appear at different points.

AP interactive decision tree - click any node to select it

If options are only short-term, the next decision node to consider is whether there are risks (and opportunities) present due to current climate variability, e.g. decadal variability, el Niño, or, on shorter time-scales, as in heat waves.

If risks are due to current climate, then it is possible to have probabilistic knowledge of relevant climate variables in the form of probability density functions. In this case with only short-term options, decisions can be based on the current climate. If only future risks are considered, and all options are short-term, then the best course of action is to postpone the decision and observe. This is because short-term options can be implemented and adjusted to future impacts when they occur.

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References AP home Glossary

This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document

Criteria checklist

1. You want to appraise adaptation options.
2. The focus is either on collective actions and there are no conflicting interests of private actors, or the focus is on individual collective actions.
3. Decisions can be formalised.
4. Either the set of options includes only short term ones or residual impacts can not be projected.
5. As a next step you are faced with the question whether there are risks are due to current climate variability.