Technical Policy Briefing Notes - 9
Adaptation Turning Points
Strengths and Weaknesses
Policy Briefs
Adaptation Turning Points
Strengths and Weaknesses
A key part of the
MEDIATION project has been to identify the strengths and weaknesses of
different approaches for adaptation. The table below lists strengths
and weaknesses of an assessment of adaptation turning points.
A strength is that the focus on conditions that society perceives as undesirable helps to identify stakeholders, policy plans and the spatial and temporal boundaries of the assessment. Starting the assessment from an existing policy process facilitates the engagement of actors and provide an well-communicable starting point. Yet a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts and possible adaptation turning points may require putting this policy process in a wider perspective, including the exploration of the various ways stakeholders frame the issues to be addressed. Another strength is that assessment of adaptation turning points allows for nesting adaptation options within a longer time frame. The concept can also be used to assess thresholds in taking adaptive action.
A weakness is that policy goals are not always clearly defined, especially with respect to potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Turning points for engineered systems (like a coast protected by dikes) are relatively well delimited by norms and standards. For ecological systems it often is more difficult to formulate thresholds. Thresholds that have been included in policy (such as water temperature ranges) may ultimately not be indicative for ecological success or failure (e.g. as in the case study for salmon on the next page). In any case, a statement about whether an adaptation turning point will be reached will always have to indicate clearly with respect to which set of policy objectives and societal preferences.
A strength is that the focus on conditions that society perceives as undesirable helps to identify stakeholders, policy plans and the spatial and temporal boundaries of the assessment. Starting the assessment from an existing policy process facilitates the engagement of actors and provide an well-communicable starting point. Yet a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts and possible adaptation turning points may require putting this policy process in a wider perspective, including the exploration of the various ways stakeholders frame the issues to be addressed. Another strength is that assessment of adaptation turning points allows for nesting adaptation options within a longer time frame. The concept can also be used to assess thresholds in taking adaptive action.
A weakness is that policy goals are not always clearly defined, especially with respect to potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Turning points for engineered systems (like a coast protected by dikes) are relatively well delimited by norms and standards. For ecological systems it often is more difficult to formulate thresholds. Thresholds that have been included in policy (such as water temperature ranges) may ultimately not be indicative for ecological success or failure (e.g. as in the case study for salmon on the next page). In any case, a statement about whether an adaptation turning point will be reached will always have to indicate clearly with respect to which set of policy objectives and societal preferences.
| Key strengths Can synthesize available information for the prioritization of research and adaptation planning. Is more policy-oriented and stakeholder motivated than typical impact and vulnerability assessments. Actors define stakes to be considered. Is flexible in considering a range of socialeconomic objectives. Uses scenarios not to predict the future, but to delineate uncertainties. Encourages discussion with society about (un)acceptable change and definition of critical indicator values. | Potential weaknesses Focuses on existing management objectives. Unknown impacts and new challenges may be overlooked. Gains complexity with multiple drivers where there is an indirect link with climate change. At present only relatively simple / driver thresholds have been identified with sufficient certainty for policy support. Requires identification of social-political thresholds that are often ill-defined. Loses simplicity for communication when thresholds are less-well defined and when turning points have multiple drivers. |
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