Adaptation
has become an integral part of climate change policy. The ultimate
scale of the challenge will largely be defined by the development of
the world’s economy and greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
Both are uncertain, suggesting that planners may have to respond to
rises in global mean temperature of 4°C or more (Parry et al.,
2009). Adapting to such conditions would be challenging at best (Smith
et al., 2011), and may face practically insurmountable physical limits
in many places due to loss of ecosystem services and interacting
impacts. Climate change shifts the sustainability challenge from
preserving natural resources for future generations to strengthening
resilience and adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems. The
challenge for policy making and sustainable resources management shifts
from conservation to managing change and adaptation.
The
European Commission FP7 funded MEDIATION project (Methodology for
Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION) is advancing the
analysis of adaptation issues through its objectives of analysing
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and promoting knowledge sharing
through a MEDIATION Adaptation Platform. To complement the information
on the Platform, a series of Policy Briefing Notes have been produced
on Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaptation.
This
Policy Briefing Note (Note 9) provides a summary of the assessment of adaptation turning points. It
provides a brief synthesis of the approach, its strengths and
weaknesses, the relevance for adaptation, how it considers uncertainty,
and presents case study examples.It is stressed that this note only
provides an overview: more detailed information is available in
MEDIATION deliverables, and sources and links on the MEDIATION
Adaptation Platform.