Technical Policy Briefing Notes - 9
Adaptation Turning Points
The Application to Adaptation
Policy Briefs
Adaptation Turning Points
The Application to Adaptation
This section shows
how the assessment of adaptation turning points can help to plan
adequate responses. In the face of threshold behaviour and uncertainty,
authors have called for a shift in perspective from the aspiration to
control change in a system assumed stable, to sustain and generate
desirable pathways for societal development (Downing, 2012; Weaver et
al., 2013). Given the uncertain changing conditions that many
decision-makers face nowadays, a sustainable plan is not only one that
is able to achieve objectives related to society, economy, and
environment, but a sustainable plan should also be robust, meaning that
it performs satisfactorily under a wide variety of futures, and
adaptive, meaning that it can be adapted to changing (unforeseen)
future conditions.
Much of the traditional scientific work has been built on the supposition that the uncertainties result from a lack of information. This has led to an emphasis on uncertainty reduction through ever-increasing information seeking and processing. However, most strategic planning problems face uncertainties that cannot be reduced by gathering more information and are not statistical in nature (Hallegatte et al., 2012).
These deep uncertainties are unknowable at present, and will only dissolve as time unfolds.
This is particularly problematic for planning longlived and costly investments (Hallegatte, 2009). Here it is recommended to incorporate flexibility by designing so-called adaptation route-maps and pathways that sequence measures over time and allow for progressive implementation depending on when pre-identified thresholds are reached (Reeder and Ranger, 2011; Haasnoot et al., 2013).
Route-maps stimulate planners to explicitly think about decision lifetime and taking short-term actions, while keeping options open and avoiding lock-ins. Thus, the inevitable changes become part of a recognized process and corrective actions can be taken based on monitoring and as new information becomes available.
Much of the traditional scientific work has been built on the supposition that the uncertainties result from a lack of information. This has led to an emphasis on uncertainty reduction through ever-increasing information seeking and processing. However, most strategic planning problems face uncertainties that cannot be reduced by gathering more information and are not statistical in nature (Hallegatte et al., 2012).
These deep uncertainties are unknowable at present, and will only dissolve as time unfolds.
This is particularly problematic for planning longlived and costly investments (Hallegatte, 2009). Here it is recommended to incorporate flexibility by designing so-called adaptation route-maps and pathways that sequence measures over time and allow for progressive implementation depending on when pre-identified thresholds are reached (Reeder and Ranger, 2011; Haasnoot et al., 2013).
Route-maps stimulate planners to explicitly think about decision lifetime and taking short-term actions, while keeping options open and avoiding lock-ins. Thus, the inevitable changes become part of a recognized process and corrective actions can be taken based on monitoring and as new information becomes available.
Adaptation route-map
Figure 2: Adaptation route-map illustrating how different adaptation options (here: raise dikes (blue), broaden dikes (green) and retreat (red)) are combined into adaptation pathways (for adaptation turning point and scenario information see Figure 1. For adaptation pathways see (Reeder and Ranger, 2011; Haasnoot et al., 2013))
Figure 2 illustrates how potential adaptation
options can be combined into adaptation
pathways. This is particularly useful for
adaptation options with a longer decision and
implementation lifetime (c.f. Smith et al., 2011). In
Figure 2 each option is effective for a distinctive
range of sea level rise after which a shift to
another option is needed (indicated by arrows).
Pathways are implemented depending on
observed climate change or improved
projections. The possibility to switch between
adaptation options in response to new
information is a measure of flexibility.
Figure 2: Adaptation route-map illustrating how different adaptation options (here: raise dikes (blue), broaden dikes (green) and retreat (red)) are combined into adaptation pathways (for adaptation turning point and scenario information see Figure 1. For adaptation pathways see (Reeder and Ranger, 2011; Haasnoot et al., 2013))
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