Description of the Method

The assessment of adaptation turning points starts from the perspective that management aims to sustain conditions for society and nature. A critical threshold is reached, the moment that climate change renders policy untenable or results in conditions that society perceives as undesirable. At such a threshold situation, it is not only important to know the extent of the impact, but at least equally important is to know when and how likely it is that this situation occurs. Thus the analysis focusses on the question of whether or not current management is sustainable under a changing climate, and when adjustments are required.

Assessing climate impacts in terms of the finiteness of policy objectives has the important consequence that it invites to elicit and discuss the thresholds that society should not transgress. Ultimately, this question is a normative one – how much change and risk is society willing to accept? Many studies of adaptation view the legal and political system as boundary conditions. Yet, by focusing on those boundaries and how to move them, greater realisation of adaptation can be achieved (c.f. Cosens and Williams, 2012; Adger et al., 2013). The focus on thresholds highlights that adaptation operates at two distinct levels: changes to the physical environment, and changes to the decision environment, including policy objectives. An often overlooked strategy in adaptation planning is for actors to accept changes and adjust policy objectives accordingly.

Starting from the threshold situation where the current management strategy can no longer meet its objectives, the concept of ‘adaptation tipping points’ was advanced for a policy study of long-term water management in the Netherlands (Kwadijk et al., 2010). It has proven successful in assessing and communicating water related risks, and it has become one of the scientific concepts underpinning the Dutch longterm water strategy (Haasnoot et al., 2013). A similar planning approach was developed and tested for flood risk in the Thames estuary (Lavery and Donovan, 2005; Smith et al., 2011). Reported studies so far have focused on hydrological and technical thresholds for policy success (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Reeder and Ranger, 2011; Lempert, 2013). More recently, cases with social-ecologically defined policy objectives have become available (Bölscher et al., 2013; Werners et al., 2013b).

• Although the studies differ methodologically, they address at least the following questions:
• What defines unacceptable change: which targets and thresholds exist for different actors?
• Under which climatic conditions are thresholds reached?
• When are thresholds reached (including capturing uncertainty in a time range)?
• When and how to respond?

To avoid confusion with the popular term ‘tipping point’ that people tend to associate with major change in biophysical systems, MEDIATION uses ‘adaptation turning point’ for the situation in which a social-political threshold is reached due to climate change. Social-political thresholds include formal policy objectives as well as informal societal preferences, stakes and interests, such as willingness to invest and protection of cultural identity (Werners et al., 2013a). Importantly, reaching a turning point can be due to a biophysical tipping point, but not necessarily so. Essentially, an adaptation turning point signifies a moment in time at which a threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded. Figure 1a illustrates that an adaptation turning point does not mean that management is impossible and that catastrophic consequences are to be faced. Yet, it implies progressive failure of the current management (the “rocky road”), such that actors may wish to turn to alternative strategies (the “unexplored land”). Figure 1b illustrates how scenario uncertainty can be translated into a time range in which the adaptation turning point is likely to occur.

• Section overview
• Key Messages
• Introduction
• Description of the Method
• The Application to Adaptation
• Strengths and Weaknesses
• Case Studies
• Discussion and Applicability
• References

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