Maximisation models are based on the assumption of rational individuals maximising utility. This is a vast literature dating back more than a century to the foundations of modern economic thought and utilitarianism (e.g. Mill 1863). It is beyond the scope of this guidance to comprehensively discuss developments in this field, however we can present several classifications of this literature relevant for CCVIA. At a general level, theoretical assumptions differentiate how an actor's cognitive capacities to obtain and process information are characterised. Predicting behaviour is most easily done under the conditions of independent decision, in which individuals are assumed to be rational, perfect maximisers, in the sense that they have complete information and are able to calculate outcomes for all contingencies, and optimize utility. This is referred to as maximisation (Cooke et al. 2009).
What actions will an actor take? What consequences will these action have?
Individual decision making is, to a great extent, responsible for how climate (and their changes) affect the study unit.
Individuals take action to maximise utility. Individuals have complete information and are able to construct complete preference relations
1. Select of actors and constraints 2. Specify of decision rule for actor
Prediction actions. Consequences of actions
Assumptions may not be realistic.
Rounsevell et al. (2003) apply a linear programming model to address the question of how crop rotations vary between location. The model inputs costs and benefits of crop types and time constraints. The results predict how rotations vary between locations subject to farmers maximizing profit.
This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document |
1. | You want to identify adaptation measures. | |
2. | Your focus is on public actors and on individual actions. | |
3. | The actors' potential capacity is high, but the private actors are not adapting autonomously. | |
4. | Adaptation would not conflict with private interests. | |
5. | It is not succificient to describe actors and behaviours. | |
6. | It is assumed that individuals' choice is described by mathematical axioms. | |
7. | It is assumed that individuals have full knowledge of outcomes. |