Appraising options:
What are the robust
adaptation options in
Europe?
Case step navigator: click any node to select the respective step
Why has this question been chosen?
Assessment of future
climate change impacts
and vulnerabilities are
subject to a number of
uncertainties including
model uncertainties (i.e.
their capacity to
replicate future
conditions). Such
uncertainty can never be
completely removed, so
policy-makers need to
develop appropriate
adaptation responses that
are robust under a range
of uncertain futures.
A robust policy measure
can be defined as one
which has benefits
across sectors, scenarios
and spatial and temporal
scales. The CLIMSAVE
Integrated Assessment
Platform contains a
range of linked metamodels
which are
spatially-explicit
covering multiple
sectors and a range of
scenarios for different
future time periods.
Due to the lead time
necessary, due to the
length of planning and
policy cycles, for
implementing options,
none of the options can
be considered shortterm.
Which methods have been applied?
CLIMSAVE seeks to
capture uncertainties by
formally identifying and
quantifying the different
sources of uncertainty.
This is being achieved
for the meta-models by
reporting on the
calibration and validation
outcomes for the
individual meta-models.
Error propagation
between the meta-models
is being assessed using
formal uncertainty
analyses. Simulations of
the integrated assessment
platform will encompass
a wide range of
alternative future
scenarios and these will
be used to explore the
uncertain parameter
space reflected in these
alternative futures.
The uncertainty analyses
will identify whether
different representations
of the future lead to
divergence or
convergence of
vulnerability outcomes.
A robustness indicator
will also be developed
for a range of policies
which checks whether
different policies have
benefits across multiple
scenarios, sectors, and
spatial and temporal
scales.
Why have these methods been selected?
The CLIMSAVE
Integrated Assessment
Platform includes
numerous climate and
socio-economic scenarios
and multiple sectors
(represented by different
meta-models). This will
allow a rigorous
uncertainty assessment.
What results have been obtained?
Results will only be available
in 2013!
Reflections on this step
It is possible that different
assumptions describing
different world development
pathways could result in
similar impact or vulnerability
outcomes (the concept of
equifinality) and knowledge
of these outcomes reduces
uncertainties in impact and
vulnerability assessment. This
information is essential for
developing robust policy
options.
