Exploring risks:
What are the key
impacts and crosssectoral
interactions in
landscape change in
Europe?
How to understand the
key sectoral
sensitivities and the
inter-dependencies
between sectors?
Case step navigator: click any node to select the respective step
Why has this question been chosen?
Landscapes are a
complex systems at
regional scales [Scale of
analysis: regional to
global], for which
changes are dependent
on both 'sectoral'
impacts and the crosssectoral
interactions.
Sectoral impact
assessment fails to
identify the important
inter-dependencies and
also the synergies and
potential for
maladaptation.
Many previous climate
change impact
assessments have
focused on single
sectors. Such studies
ignore important
interactions across
sectors which must be
taken into account in the
development of
adaptation strategies.
Evidence of a growing
dissatisfaction of the
limitations of modeling
approach which does not
facilitate the social
learning which could be
engendered by the
provision of appropriate
simulations tools.
Which methods have been applied?
The CLIMSAVE
Integrated Assessment
Platform contains a suite
of climate and socioeconomic
scenarios,
databases and linked
meta-models.
There are two interrelated
elements. Firstly,
the development of
stakeholder-led socioeconomic
scenarios
describing the future
evolution of Europe.
Within this uncertainty
framework, stakeholders
have interactively
developed narrative
storylines; provided
preliminary scenario
quantification and
developed adaptation
prioritisations.
Secondly, based on a
review of interactive
software systems (e.g
RegIS, MULINO,
CLIMPACTS,
SimCLIM), the
CLIMSAVE Integrated
Assessment Platform has
been developed to
provide a web-based
interface to enable
interactive access to a
suite of climate and
socio-economic
scenarios, databases and
linked meta-models.
Why have these methods been selected?
The meta-models describe
the response of urban,
pests, water, agriculture,
forestry, coastal and
fluvial flooding, and
biodiversity sectors to
future climate and socioeconomic
change. They
also allow the assessment
of alternative adaptation
measures.
Providing results or
interpretations to
stakeholders based on the
outputs of particular
simulations of a model is
not sufficient to test the
sensitivity of the system,
to engender organisational
or behavioural change or
to enable knowledge
creation as a learning
process, in public
collective decision
making. A two-way
iterative process of
dialogue and exploration
of "what if's" is
necessary. [Adaptation
situation: public
collective].
More interactive
integrated assessment
(IA) processes are needed
that allow stakeholders to
develop their
understanding and test
ideas, based upon their
own hypotheses.
Participatory IA platforms
involving clear user
interfaces, explicit
recognition of uncertainty,
and transparency in model
performance and
operation can take
account of the value and
importance of stakeholder
'lay insight' and promote
dialogue between the
research and stakeholder
communities within a
process of mutual
learning and guidance.
What results have been obtained?
The series of stakeholder
workshops have developed an
internally consistent set of
socio-economic scenarios
describing future evolution and
adaptation. These have been
integrated within a web-based
Platform (the CLIMSAVE
IAP), which has a coherent
deign and functionality to
facilitate familiarity and
interactivity. The CLIMSAVE
IAP allows stakeholders to
select input scenarios (socioeconomic
and/or climate) and
rapidly simulate potential
impacts, residual impacts (after
adaptation), vulnerability
hotspots and adaptation costeffectiveness.
Reflections on this step
In previous impact and
adaptation studies,
stakeholders have often been
presented with a set of predefined
results. Behind this is
the assumption that the
models themselves belong to
the research community and
this presents a certain lack of
flexibility for stakeholders in
that the choice of scenario,
sensitivity or uncertainty
analysis, and types of outputs
are all fixed. The CLIMSAVE
Platform aims to overcome
these limitations and provide a
tool that is intuitive and
accessible to everyone,
flexible and above all useful.
The CLIMSAVE IAP design
which allows nonsynchronous
delivery of metamodel
outputs allows
simulation outputs of the
initial meta-models to be
delivered to stakeholders for
display within 1-3 seconds.
This rapid interactivity
combined with fast scenario
set-up should prevent user
switch-off.
