Julius Garbe is a PhD candidate and member of the Ice Dynamics working group at PIK. His research focuses on the long-term stability behavior and potential tipping points of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and their consequences for future sea-level change.
Department
Working Group
FutureLab / Science Unit
Contact
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2673
julius.garbe[at]pik-potsdam.de
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
PhD Project
My research focuses on the long-term stability behavior and potential critical thresholds—so-called 'tipping points'—of the Antarctic ice sheet under the scope of future global warming. In particular, I investigate how the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet is affected by the influence of interacting tipping elements in the global climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet or the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The aim of my PhD project is to assess the likelihood that a tipping of the Greenland ice sheet influences the tipping potential of the Antarctic ice sheet. Using numerical ice sheet modelling, I want to answer the question, how such a tipping cascade impacts future sea-level contributions from Antarctica.
My work is funded by the Leibniz Association project DominoES – Domino Effects in the Earth System: Can Antarctica tip climate policy?, a joint project by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, and the EU's Horizon-2020 project TiPACCs – Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components.
- Advisor: Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann
Research Interests
Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles
In Review / Submitted
- R. Winkelmann, J. Garbe, J. F. Donges, T. Albrecht: Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming, submitted (2024).
- D. M. Chandler, P. M. Langebroek, R. Reese, T. Albrecht, J. Garbe, R. Winkelmann: Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800 kyr warns of future ice loss, in review (2024).
Published
- V. K. Pedersen, N. Gomez, J. X. Mitrovica, G. Jungdal-Olesen, J. L. Andersen, J. Garbe, A. Aschwanden, R. Winkelmann: Earth’s hypsometry and what it tells us about global sea level, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2024).
- H. Seroussi, T. Pelle, W. H. Lipscomb, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Albrecht, J. Alvarez-Solas, X. Asay-Davis, J.-B. Barre, C. J. Berends, J. Bernales, J. Blasco, J. Caillet, D. M. Chandler, V. Coulon, R. Cullather, C. Dumas, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, J. Garbe, F. Gillet-Chaulet, R. Gladstone, H. Goelzer, N. Golledge, R. Greve, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. K. Han, T. R. Hillebrand, M. J. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, N. C. Jourdain, A. K. Klose, P. M. Langebroek, G. R. Leguy, D. P. Lowry, P. Mathiot, M. Montoya, M. Morlighem, S. Nowicki, F. Pattyn, A. J. Payne, A. Quiquet, R. Reese, A. Robinson, L. Saraste, E. G. Simon, S. Sun, J. P. Twarog, L. D. Trusel, B. Urruty, J. Van Breedam, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wang, C. Zhao, T. Zwinger: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble, Earth's Future (2024).
- J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, U. Krebs-Kanzow, R. Winkelmann: The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple, The Cryosphere (2023).
- R. Reese, J. Garbe, E. A. Hill, B. Urruty, K. A. Naughten, O. Gagliardini, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. H. Gudmundsson, D. M. Chandler, P. M. Langebroek, R. Winkelmann: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, The Cryosphere (2023).
- Press release
- Explainer video
- Selected media coverage: Phys.org, Der Standard, Innovation, Reporterre, ABC Nyheter, Common Dreams
- E. A. Hill*, B. Urruty*, R. Reese*, J. Garbe, O. Gagliardini, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann, M. Chekki, D. M. Chandler, P. M. Langebroek: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry, The Cryosphere (2023). *These authors contributed equally to this work.
- Press release
- Explainer video
- Selected media coverage: Phys.org, Der Standard, Innovation, Reporterre, ABC Nyheter, Common Dreams
- N. Bauer, D. P. Keller, J. Garbe, K. Karstens, F. Piontek, W. von Bloh, W. Thiery, M. Zeitz, M. Mengel, J. Strefler, K. Thonicke, R. Winkelmann: Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5ºC carbon budget over space and time, Environmental Research Letters (2023).
- J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature (2020).
- Nature cover story
- Press release
- Blog post
- Video animation
- Selected media coverage: The Guardian, DER SPIEGEL, Fox News, ScienceNews, International Business Times, Der Standard, NRC, La Vanguardia
- A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, T. Albrecht, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, R. Greve, P. Huybrechts, J. Jordan, G. Leguy, D. Martin, M. Morlighem, F. Pattyn, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, C. Rodehacke, H. Seroussi, J. Sutter, T. Zhang, J. Van Breedan, R. Calov, R. DeConto, C. Dumas, J. Garbe, G. H. Gudmundsson, M. J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, T. Kleiner, W. Lipscomb, M. Meinshausen, E. Ng, S. M. J. Nowicki, M. Perego, S. F. Price, F. Saito, N. J. Schlegel, S. Sun, R. S. W. van de Wal: Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2), Earth System Dynamics (2020).
- Press release
- Selected media coverage: NewScientist, Tagesschau, DER SPIEGEL, ZEIT, FAZ, FOCUS, Der Standard
Other Publications
Policy Reports
- R. Winkelmann, N. J. Steinert, D. I. Armstrong McKay, V. Brovkin, A. Kääb, D. Notz, Y. Aksenov, S. Arndt, S. Bathiany, E. Burke, J. Garbe, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, G. Hugelius, A. K. Klose, P. M. Langebroek, B. Marzeion, F. Maussion, J. Nitzbon, A. Robinson, S. Rynders, I. Sudakow: Tipping points in the cryosphere, in: T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J. F. Abrams, S. J. Lade, J. F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S. R. Smith, C. Zimm, E. Bailey, J. E. Buxton, J. G. Dyke, A. Ghadiali, L. Laybourn (eds.): The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, University of Exeter, UK (2023).
- Press release
- Video
- Selected media coverage: The Guardian, DER SPIEGEL, Tagesschau, ZEIT, DLF, ZDFheute, MaiThink X, CarbonBrief, Nature, NewScientist, The Standard
Academic Theses
- J. Garbe: Long-term evolution and critical thresholds of the Antarctic Ice Sheet [master's thesis], University of Hamburg (2017).
- J. Garbe: An overview of explanations for the problem of weak temperature gradients in warm climates in Earth history [bachelor's thesis], Humboldt University of Berlin (2013).
Other / Non-Peer-Reviewed Publications
- J. Garbe: Hysteresis For Dummies – Why history matters, EGU Blogs (2020).
Open-Access Data & Code
- J. Garbe: PISM model output data from Garbe et al. (Nature, 2020) publication [data], Zenodo (2023).
- C. Khrulev, A. Aschwanden, E. Bueler, J. Brown, D. Maxwell, T. Albrecht, R. Reese, M. Mengel, M. Martin, R. Winkelmann, M. Zeitz, A. Levermann, J. Feldmann, J. Garbe, M. Haseloff, J. Seguinot, S. Hinck, T. Kleiner, E. Fischer, A. Damsgaard, C. Lingle, W. van Pelt, F. Ziemen, N. Shemonski, K. Mankoff, J. Kennedy, K. Blum, M. Habermann, D. DellaGiustina, R. Hock, M. Kreuzer, E. Degregori, S. Schoell: Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) [code], Zenodo (2023).
- J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, other PISM authors: PISM version as used in Garbe et al. (TC, 2023) publication (Version v1.2-debm-simple-antarctica) [code], Zenodo (2023).
- J. Garbe, other PISM authors: PISM version as used in Bauer et al. (ERL, 2023) publication (Version v1.1-overshoots-antarctica) [code], Zenodo (2023).
- J. Garbe, other PISM authors: PISM version as used in Garbe et al. (Nature, 2020) publication (Version v1.0-hysteresis-antarctica) [code], Zenodo (2020).
- J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (ignite talk and poster)
"Towards TIPMIP" Workshop, November 6, 2023, Döllnsee, Germany - J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, U. Krebs-Kanzow, R. Winkelmann
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple (talk)
TiPACCs Annual Meeting 2023, October 18, 2023, Brussels, Belgium - J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, U. Krebs-Kanzow, R. Winkelmann
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple (poster)
36th Forum for Research into Ice Shelf Processes (FRISP 2023), June 21, 2023, Stalheim, Norway - J. Garbe, M. Zeitz, U. Krebs-Kanzow, R. Winkelmann
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple (talk)
EGU General Assembly 2022, May 23, 2022, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann, M. Kreuzer
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
28th International Polar Conference, May 4, 2022, Potsdam, Germany - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (ignite talk and poster)
InTENSE Workshop, August 16, 2021, Bad Belzig, Germany - R. Winkelmann, J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (online display)
AGU Fall Meeting 2020, December 16, 2020, online - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, A. Levermann, J. F. Donges, R. Winkelmann
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (talk)
PIK RD1 Science Discussion, September 2, 2020, Potsdam, Germany - R. Winkelmann, T. Albrecht, J. Garbe, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann
Antarctic ice dynamics - from deep past to deep future (online display)
EGU General Assembly 2020, May 5, 2020, online - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Long-term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
AGU Fall Meeting 2019, December 13, 2019, San Francisco, USA - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (poster)
EGU General Assembly 201, April 9, 2019, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe
Hysteresis Behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (talk)
PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar, November 14, 2018, Potsdam, Germany - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J. F. Donges, A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann
Hysteresis behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PICO presentation)
EGU General Assembly 2018, April 9, 2018, Vienna, Austria - J. Garbe
Tipping of the Antarctic Ice Sheet influenced by Greenland ice loss (talk)
PIK RD1 Young Scientist Seminar, October 26, 2017, Potsdam, Germany - M. Martin, J. Garbe
Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol (children's lecture)
Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2017, June 24, 2017, Potsdam, Germany - R. Reese, J. Garbe
Entdeckungsreise zum Südpol (children's lecture)
Lange Nacht der Wissenschaften 2016, June 11, 2016, Potsdam, Germany
- TIPMIP Workshop on Modelling Tipping Elements
Addressing Key Uncertainties in Modelling Physical and Ecological Tipping Dynamics in the Earth System (towards TIPMIP)
November 5-8, 2023, Döllnsee, Germany - GEUS-PIK PISM Workshop
Copenhagen PISM Workshop
October 24-25, 2022, Copenhagen, Denmark - InTENSE Workshop on Interacting Tipping Elements
Interacting Tipping Elements in the Natural and Social Components of the Earth System (InTENSE)
August 15-18, 2021, Bad Belzig, Germany - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements III (co-hosted)
Criticality in Social Tipping Processes
December 4, 2020, online - Emergent Constraints & Tipping Points Workshop (University of Exeter)
Emergent Constraints and Tipping Points
November 23-26, 2020, online - FRISP 2020
Forum for Research into Ice Shelf Processes
June 16-25, 2020, online - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements II (co-hosted)
Social Tipping Elements relevant to stay within planetary boundaries
June 17-19, 2019, Cologne, Germany - Karthaus Summer School 2018
Ice Sheets and Glaciers in the Climate System
September 11-22, 2018, Karthaus, Italy - DominoES Workshop on Social Tipping Elements I (co-hosted)
Social Tipping Elements Decisive for the Future of the Anthropocene
June 4-6, 2018, Cologne, Germany
