“In the case of an unabated high emissions scenario, the Antarctic Ice Sheet could contribute up to 4.4 metres to global sea level rise by 2300, compared to just 0.5 metres under low emissions," says Torsten Albrecht, PIK scientist and co-author of the study. "The true impact of our current climate policies will only become apparent when we consider these long-term implications.” An increase of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise from 1.4 metres by 2200 to 4.4 metres by 2300 would correspond to an annual sea level rise of 3 centimetres, ten times the currently observed global rate.
For their analysis, the researchers combined data from 16 different ice sheet models for the first time to investigate the behavior of the AIS through 2300. While the timing of the projected AIS glacier retreat varies depending on the ice flow model used, all models consistently indicate a rapid acceleration in retreat once it begins, making the AIS a major future contributor to rising sea levels.
Article:
Hélène Seroussi, Tyler Pelle, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Xylar Asay-Davis, Jean-Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Thomas Zwinger (2024): Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble. Earth's Future. [DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004561]
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