Adaptation Task Navigator
Task overview
Trend detection addresses the question of whether a trend exists in the data. The trend of interest can be purely biophysical, as for example, in measuring sea-level rise or average mean global temperature. Trend detection can also address questions that involve both socio-economic and biophysical systems, as is the case with detecting trends in damages from tropical storms.
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Question addressed
Is there a trend in time series data?
Conditions of applicability
Time-series data is available on the study unit.
Theoretical assumptions
[text to be added]
Steps taken
1. Selection of variables of interest
2. Application of statistical methods
Results achieved
Statistical significant trend in data.
Issues involved
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Example cases from literature
Emanual (2005) develops an index of accumulated annual power-dissipation from tropical storms in 5 ocean basins. The index is based on measures of wind-speed and precipitation in the storms. Using a statistical methods an upward trend in the index is observed over the period since the 1970s.
Pielke et al. (2005) find no trend in the annual hurricane damage in the US normalised for inflation, population and wealth.
Criteria checklist
Overview on the criteria that lead you to the current task:
| 1. | You want to generate knowledge on vulnerability and impacts relevant for adaptation. | |
| 2. | Your focus is on impacts. | |
| 3. | Data is available on observed impacts |
Toolbox
Browse the toolbox to learn more on methods and tools related to adaptation task 'Trend detection'.
| Climate Impacts LINK Project | |
| COSMIC2 | |
| Global Ocean Data Assimilation System | |
| MAGICC/SCENGEN | |
| PRECIS | |
| RClimDex | |
| SimCLIM | |
| Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) |
Case steps
Use these links to browse the Meditation case studies for steps that have addressed adaptation task 'Trend detection'.
| SE2 - Tuscan people is hot! | |
| What is the trend of climate impacts? | |
External resources
weADAPT case studies identidied for task 'Trend detection' 1
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Current Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in East Cameroon
A baseline vulnerability assessment has been conducted in the Tri-National de la Sangha (TNS) landscape in East Cameroon, under the COBAM... | |
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Historical climate analysis - Kenya
As part of the DFID project on Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya, an analysis of the historic trends in precipitation, temperature... | |
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Climate change modelling and analyses for Mozambique
This report uses historical data and climate projections to assess how climate change may affect the operations of Mozambique's Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Disaster Management Institute). The climate messages presented here are based on analysing: observed data collected from 32 weather stations across Mozambique since 1960... | |
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Historical climate analysis and climate projections for Burundi
This climate analysis was conducted as part of the DFID-funded Economics of Climate Change on East Africa project. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) weather system dominates Burundi’s climate. It drives a bi-modal seasonality, with the main rain events occurring March-May and October-November... | |
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1 note that this does not imply that the Mediation Integrated Methodology was used in these cases. | |