MEDIATION CP

Adaptation Task Navigator

Question

Should adaptation be included in the projection?

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appraising vulnerability and impacts

impact analysis
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How to answer

When projecting impacts, it is important to decide whether to choose methods that project potential impacts, which are those that "may occur without considering adaptation" (Parry et al. 2007: 876), in contrast to methods that project residual impacts, which include adaptation.

We follow the IPCC in distinguishing methods that analyse potential impacts, which are those that "may occur without considering adaptation" (Parry et al. 2007: 876), in opposition to methods that assess residual impacts, which include adaptation.

Criteria checklist

Overview on the criteria that lead you to the current step:

1. You want to appraise vulnerability and impacts.
2. Your focus is on impacts.
3. Either no data is available on observed impacts, or trend detection / impact attribution have already been performed.
4. Either no knowledge on future impacts is available, or a representative range of uncertainty has not been explored.
5. Impact models are available that can be used to simulate future impacts.
6. As a next step you are faced with the question whether adaptation should be included in the projection.