Question

Which question has been addressed in this step?

Exploring risks: What are the impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in Tuscany?

Why has this question been chosen?

• Climate change is already occurring and farmers are facing the consequences, such as increasing climate variability, reflecting on yields, quality, occurrence and length of phaenological phases, etc.
• Agriculture has both an economic and environmental value in Tuscany (landscape).
• Changes in land use could imply detrimental effects on tourism (due to modified landscape).

Which methods have been applied?

• Application of crop growth simulation models.
• Downscaling of climate scenarios.
• Simulation of economic impacts of climate change (quality and quantity).

Why have these methods been selected?

• Data and a crop model were readily available for which there was past experience in, and knowledge of the methodologies, background studies

What results have been obtained?

• Climate change is affecting the viticulture by shortening and anticipating the phaenological phases and then reducing the yields. Areas currently suitable for the production of high quality wines will be reduced and shifted to higher elevations and latitudes. The quality of the wines be reduced as well.

Reflections on this step

• Adaptation must be carefully studied in order to keep the production, in terms of both quality and quantity, in the areas where is currently obtained.