The grapevine model (Bindi et al., 1996) uses a semi-empirical approach to simulate the main processes regulating development and growth of grapevine and has been already validated for Sangiovese variety. Crop development is divided in 2 periods: vegetative and fruit growth. The vegetative period, included between bud-break and bloom, is calculated on the assumption that bloom occurs when 17 leaves have appeared on the main shoot. The duration of fruit growth, between bloom and maturation, is assumed to be temperature-dependent and it is calculated using cumulative degree-days (1440) with a base temperature of 10°C.
Leaf area index (LAI) is calculated from the total number of shoots per unit area, the rate of leaf appearance and leaf expansion. LAI is, in turn, used to calculate the total amount of solar radiation intercepted by the canopy so that the crop biomass can be calculated as the product of this parameter and radiation use efficiency (RUE, g MJ-1).
Daily fruit growth rate is calculated assuming that the harvest index HI (the ratio of fruit to current year's total biomass) increases linearly during fruit growth. Water stress is included in the model as reducing both LAI growth and RUE.
Additionally, the model takes into account of the effect of increased CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on physiological parameters: RUE was set to increase linearly by 30% for a doubling [CO2] (i.e. 700 ppm). According to the storyline of A2 and B2 scenarios [CO2] was set to increase proportionally from the present period (1990-2005, 350 ppm) to 2100 (700 and 550 ppm for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively).
This toolbox entry has been labelled with the following tags:
| Sector: | agriculture | |
| Spatial scale: | sub-national | |
| Temporal focus: | present; future | |
| Onset: | slow | |
| Role in decision process: | diagnostic | |
| Level of skills required: | high | |
| Data requirements: | modest | |
| Adaptation tasks: | Potential impact projection; Residual impact projection |
Grapevine phenology was used as indicator to assess the potential land suitability for grapevine cultivation. For each time-slice, the potential suitability of a site for grapevine cultivation was calculated as the ratio between the number of failed growing seasons (when maturation stage was not reached before the end of November) and total number of possible growing seasons (29). Accordingly, the degree of suitability ranged from 0% (no growing seasons completed) to 100% (all possible growing seasons completed). After interpolation (see after), a binary map was derived where 95% was considered the threshold of land suitability (>95%) or not suitability (<95%) for grapevine cultivation. The accuracy of this approach was tested for the present period PP, over the actual grapevine land cover, as derived by CORINE (CLC 2000). The results, visually evaluated, indicated the effectiveness of this methodology, to the extent that actual cultivated areas are completely included in grapevine potential distribution across the region.
The grapevine growth model is a tool developed by researchers at the University of Florence and described in Bindi et al (1996). It is recommended to contact researchers for more details about model access.
Bindi M, Fibbi L, Gozzini B, Orlandini S, Miglietta F (1996) Modeling the impact of future climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine. Clim Res 7: 213-224.
The case study pool contains the following steps that were performed applying the described entry:
| SE1 - Sorry, no more wine! | |
| Exploring risks: What are the impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in Tuscany? | |
