MSc Stephen Bi

The global phase-out of coal is widely seen as an early entry point to economically optimal pathways for long-term climate stabilization, but its implementation is a question of national politics and international coordination rather than of global cost optimization. This lays the foundation for my Ph.D. research in conjunction with the PEGASOS project – the Political Economy of a Global Coal Phase-Out. The coal exit paradigm has begun to take hold in real-world policymaking, but auspiciously in only wealthy and/or coal-independent nations. The question thus remains whether this initiative can gain political acceptance in countries with coal-fired economic development agendas quickly enough, and whether the willing-and-able countries have set their ambitions high enough, to keep the Paris Agreement within reach.

My research aims to incorporate quantitative political feasibility considerations into integrated assessment models (IAMs, namely REMIND), thereby helping to bridge the divide between techno-economic energy system modeling and empirical political economy research. Through cross-disciplinary, collaborative efforts, a number of methodological avenues are currently under development and consideration, such as (i) designing policy-coalition model scenarios informed by regression analyses of political economy indicators at the country level; (ii) initializing REMIND with near-term constraint scenarios based on historical data extrapolation to assess the path dependence of long-term outcomes; and (iii) linking REMIND with other models (e.g. sectoral, DSGE, and coalition-formation models) to leverage their varied resolutions and scales to gain deeper policy insights.

My research aims to contribute to the scientific debate over whether a global coal exit can be considered sufficiently politically feasible and environmentally effective to merit its current prioritization over oil and gas policies in energy and climate action agendas. More generally, the research aims to advance the understanding of feasibility, justice and burden sharing in the global context of climate mitigation.