E. Kriegler (2008)
Updating under unknown unknowns: An open version of Bayes' rule.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, accepted.
H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler (2008)
Bayesian learning for a class of priors with prescribed marginals.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning , 49: 212-233.
T. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler , J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2008)
Tipping element's in the earth's climate system.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105: 1786-1793.
E. Kriegler (2007)
On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate sytem?
Environmental Research Letters 2, 011001.
E. Kriegler, H. Held (2005)
Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39: 185-209.
pre-press version of the paper
O. Edenhofer, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler (2005)
The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND.
Ecological Economics 54: 277-292.
E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2004)
Sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors for the 21st century.
Climatic Change 66: 345-387.
pre-press version of the paper
Submitted Journal Articles:
E. Kriegler (2008)
Belief function representation of the combined probability box and atomic lower probability model.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, submitted.
D. Patino-Echeverri, P. Fischbeck, E. Kriegler (2008)
The economic and environmental costs of regulatory uncertainty for coal-fired power plants.
Environmental Science & Technology, submitted.
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer (2008)
Efficient Climate Policies under Technology and Climate Uncertainty.
Energy Economics, submitted.
V. Schweizer, E. Kriegler (2008)
Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis to Improve Future Emissions Scenarios.
Global Environmental Change, submitted.
Conference papers:
E. Kriegler (2007).
Updating and testing beliefs: An open version of Bayes' rule.
In: G. de Cooman, J. Vejnarova, M. Zaffalon (Eds.),
Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA'07), pp. 271-280.
N. Bauer, O. Edenhofer, H. Held, E. Kriegler (2005)
Uncertainty of the role of carbon capturing and sequestration within climate change mitigation strategies.
In: E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith und C.F. Gilboy (Eds.),
Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies.
Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme, Elsevier Science.
E. Kriegler, H. Held (2003)
Climate projections for the 21st century using random sets
In: J.M. Bernard, T. Seidenfeld, M. Zaffalon (Eds.) Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA'03), pp. 345-360.
Published by Carleton Scientific, Proceedings in Informatics
E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2002)
Global and Annex I emissions corridors for the 21st century
In: A.E. Rizzoli, A.J. Jakeman (Eds.), Integrated Assessment and Decision Support
- Proceedings of the 1st biennal meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software
Society (IEMSS 2002), Vol. 3, pp. 151-156
Other:
E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner (2007)
Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences
In J. Kropp, J. Scheffran (eds): Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, Nova Science Publ. Inc., New York, pp. 3-42
K. Tanaka, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007).
Aggregated carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate model (ACC2).
Reports on Earth System Science No. 40,
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
E. Kriegler (2005)
Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change
Ph.D. thesis, University of Potsdam, 1-258 p.
O. Edenhofer, E. Kriegler, N. Bauer (2002)
Szenarien zum Umbau des Energiesystems (Scenarios for a transition of the energy system),
External report to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), in Germany
Partly published in: WBGU (2003)
World in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chapter 4.5.1,
Earthscan, London.
