We have investigated the effect of a future Grand Minimum of solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century on the future climate on Earth. We find only a slight temperature offset of no more than -0.3 degrees Celsius compared to the warming of about 4 degrees due to human greenhouse-gas emissions:
The results are published in:
Feulner G., Rahmstorf S., 2010: On the Effect of a New Grand Minimum of Solar Activity on the Future Climate on Earth, Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (March 2010), L05707. doi:10.1029/2010GL042710
This paper has been chosen as Research Highlight in the following journals:
- Nature, 464 (Number 7289, 1 April 2010), 652, doi:10.1038/464652a
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 91 (Number 15, 13 April 2010), 140
- Nature
Reports Climate Change (April 2010), doi:10.1038/climate.2010.24
PIK Press Release: English, German
Media coverage (incomplete):
- International: New Scientist: here and here, Reuters, ABC Science, BusinessWeek, The Economic Times, Science & Vie, ABC Science (again), Tribune de Genève
- National: Süddeutsche Zeitung, Focus, Handelsblatt, Münchner Merkur, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, Spiegel Online Handelsblatt Klima-Orakel spektrumdirekt
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