Professor Dr. Christoph Gornott

My research covers sustainable agriculture, climate change, land use and suitability, and food security with a focus on tropical and subtropical agricultural systems. The aim of this research is to stabilize and improve food security, incomes and livelihoods for farming households.

In my research, I study the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and how resilient adaptation measures can stabilize these systems. This helps to understand the connection between agriculture and food security, and sustainable economic development. My research on the evaluation of climate change adaptation and the design of insurance solutions supports international and national policy making. It also helps farmers to cope with climate-related risks and supports establishing climate-resilient agricultural systems.

I also develop agricultural forecasting approaches which provide information about crop yields within the current growing season by statistical methods driven. This research supports decision-making in the agricultural sector, based on near- and medium-term forecasts. The work includes understand forthcoming agricultural climate risks and an analysis of agricultural systems.

In my research I use different methods like statistical and econometric methods, process-based models as well as machine-learning approaches. This includes the handling of different types of input and output data with different spatial resolutions and time frames like remote sensing earth observation data, weather and climate data, land use maps,

My key research foci are:

• Analyzing implications of climate change and environmental factors on agricultural systems to understand the measures needed for a resilient development and sustainable development.

• Evaluation of agricultural adaptation options to climate change according to bio-physical, socio-economic and institutional indicators to help farmers stabilize their food production and food security.

• Developing agricultural forecasting approaches which provide information on crop yields within the current growing season and give recommendations for sustainable agricultural interventions by considering system boundaries.

• Becker, Schauberger, Schulz, Merz, Gornott, 2024: The vulnerability of winter wheat in Germany to air temperature, precipitation or compound extremes is shaped by soil-climate zones, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
• Maskell*, Shukla*, Jagannathan*, Browne*, Ulibarri, Champbell, Franz, Grady, Joe, Kirchhoff, Madhavan, Michaud, Sharma, Singh, Orlove, Alverio, Ajibade, Bowen, Chauhan, Galappaththi, Hudson, Mach, Musah-Surugu, Petzold, Reckien, Schauberger, Segnon, van Bavel, Gornott, and the Global Adaptation Mapping Team *shared first authorship, 2024: Dichotomy or Continuum? A global review of the interaction between autonomous and planned adaptations, Ecology & Society.
• Abigaba, Chemura, Gornott, Schauberger, 2024: The potential of agroforestry to buffer climate change impacts on suitability of coffee and banana in Uganda, Agroforestry Systems.
• Murken, Tomalka, Abigaba, Amoah, Amougou, Anaba, Arumugam, Awori, Baek, Below, Cartsburg, Chemura, Cronauer, Didovets, Gizaw, Gleixner, Gloy, Grams, Habtemariam, Hampf, Hauf, Heckmann, Ibrahim, Jansen, Jarawura, Kagonbé, Kaufmann, Kephe, Klockemann, Lange, Laudien, Liersch, Lipka, Lüttringhaus, Neer, Neya, Noleppa, Ostberg, Pollig, Romanovska, Röhrig, Schauberger, Shukla, Staubach, Tchindjang, Undorf, Vetter, von Loeben, von Stechow, von Witzke, Weituschat, Wortmann, Yalew, Zouh, Gornott, 2024 : The need for evidence-based climate risk and adaptation assessments: Lessons learned from the AGRICA project, Environmental Research Letters.
• Romanovska, Undorf, Schauberger, Duisenbekovam, Gornott, 2024: Human-made climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan, Environmental Research: Climate.
• Murken, Mager, Laudien, Krähnert, Gornott, 2024: The impact of weather risk on tenure security – Evidence from smallholder farmers in Tanzania, Land Economics.
• Chemura, Gleixner, Gornott, 2024: Dataset of the suitability of major food crops in Africa under climate change, Scientific Data.
• Murken, Krähnert, Gornott, 2024: Is this land for sale? The effects of drought on land ownership in Uganda, Ecological Economics.
• Romanovska, Schauberger, Gornott, 2023: Wheat yields in Kazakhstan can successfully be forecasted using a statistical crop model, European Journal of Agronomy.
• Romanovska, Gleixner, Gornott, 2023: Climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.
• Arumugam, Chemura, Aschenbrenner,  Schauberger, Gornott, 2022: Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies: an assessment on sorghum for Burkina Faso, European Journal of Agronomy.
• Chemura, Kutywayo, Hikwa, Gornott, 2022: Climate change and cocoyam (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott) production: Assessing impacts and potential adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
• Chemura, Nangombe, Gleixner, Chinyoka, Gornott, 2022: Changes in climate extremes and their effect on maize (Zea mays L.) suitability over Southern Africa, Frontiers in Climate.
• Murken, Gornott, 2022: The importance of different land tenure systems for farmers’ response to climate change: a systematic review, Climate Risk Management.
• Laudien, Schauberger, Waid, Gornott, 2022: A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability, Nature Scientific Reports.
• Will, Backes, Campenni, Cronk, Dressler, Gornott, Groeneveld, Habtemariam, Kraehnert, Kraus, Lenel, Osgood, Taye, Müller, 2021: Improving the design of climate insurance: Combining empirical approaches and modelling, Climate and Development.
• Maskell, Chemura, Nguyen, Gornott, Mondal, 2021: Integration of Sentinel optical and radar data for mapping smallholder coffee production systems in Vietnam, Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 266, 112709.
• Vinke, Rottmann, Gornott, Zabre, Schwerdtle, Sauerborn, 2021: Is migration an effective adaptation to climate-related agricultural distress in sub-Saharan Africa, Population and Environment.
• Volk, Gornott, Sieber, Lana, 2021: Can Tanzania’s adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida Region, Regional Environmental Change.
• Chemura, Mudereri, Yalew, Gornott, 2021: Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia, Nature Scientific Reports.
• Arumugam, Chemura, Schauberger, Gornott, 2021: Remote Sensing Based Yield Estimation of Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) Using Gradient Boosted Regression in India, Remote Sensing.
• Habtemariam, Gornott, Hoffmann, Sieber, 2021: Farm production diversity and household dietary diversity: panel data evidence from rural households in Tanzania, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems.
• Shukla, Gleixner, Yalew, Schauberger, Sietz, Gornott, 2021: Dynamic vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in the face of climate change for Ethiopia, Environmental Research Letters.
• Chemura, Yalew, Gornott, 2021: Quantifying agroforestry yield buffering potential under climate change in the smallholder maize farming systems of Ethiopia, Frontiers in Agronomy.
• Lüttringhaus, Gornott, Wittkop, Noleppa, Lotze-Campen, 2020: The economic impact of exchanging breeding material: Assessing winter wheat production in Germany, Frontiers in Plant Science.
• Laudien, Schauberger, Makowski, Gornott, 2020: Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors, Nature Scientific Reports.
• Arumugam, Chemura, Schauberger, Gornott, 2020: Near real-time biophysical rice modeling to support crop insurance implementation in India, Agronomy.
• Dhamija, Shukla, Gornott, Joshi, 2020: Consistency in vulnerability assessments of wheat to climate change – A district-level analysis in India, Sustainability, 12(19), 8256.
• Laudien, Schauberger, Gleixner, Gornott, 2020: Assessment of weather-yield relations of starchy maize at different scales in Peru to support the NDC implementation, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 295,108154.
• Schauberger, Jägermeyer, Gornott, 2020: A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources, European Journal of Agronomy.
• Chemura, Schauberger, Gornott, 2020: Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana, PLoS ONE 15(6): e0229881.
• Shukla, Agarwal, Gornott, Sachdeva, Joshi, 2019: Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya, Nature Scientific Reports.
• Brüssow, Gornott, Faße, Grote, 2019: The Link between Smallholders’ Perception of Climatic Changes and Adaptation in Tanzania, Climatic Change.
• Schwalbert, Amado, Nieto, Corassa, Rice, Peralta, Schauberger, Gornott, Ciampitti, 2019: Mid-season county-level corn yield forecast for US Corn Belt integrating satellite imagery and weather variables, Crop Science.
• Belesova, Gornott, Milner, Sié, Sauerborn, Wilkinson, 2019: Mortality Impact of Low Annual Crop Yields in a Subsistence Farming Population of Burkina Faso under the Current and a 1.5°C Warmer Climate in 2100, Science of the Total Environment (691), 538-548.
• Graef, Mutabazi, Sieber, Asch, Makoko, Bonatti, Brüntrup, Gornott, Herrmann, Herrmann, Kaburire, Kahimba, Kimaro, Kuntosch, König, Lagwen, Lana, Lambert, Levy, Löhr, Maeda, Mbwana, Mchau, Mnimbo, Munder, Mwinuka, Ngwenya, Nickson, Nkonya, Saidia, Schäfer, Schindler, Silayo, Uckert, Wambura, William, 2019: Multi-Disciplinary North-South Collaboration in Participatory Action Research on Food Value Chains: a German-Tanzanian Case Study on Perceptions, Experiences and Challenges. Systemic Practice and Action Research (32), Issue 4, 359–378.
• Albers, Gornott, Hüttel, 2017: How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany, Food Policy (70), 50-61.
• Lana, Vasconcelos, Gornott, Schaffert, Bonatti, Volk, Graef, Kersebaum, Sieber: Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in a semi-arid region? Food Security (10), Issue 4, 897–910.
• Schauberger, Gornott, Wechsung, 2017: Global evaluation of a semiempirical model for yield anomalies and application to within-season yield forecasting, Global Change Biology (23), Issue 11, 4750-4764.
• Conradt, Gornott, Wechsung, 2016: Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (216), 68–81.
• Gornott & Wechsung, 2016: Statistical regression models for assessing climate impacts on crop yields: A validation study for winter wheat and silage maize in Germany, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (217), 89–100. 
• Gornott & Wechsung, 2015: Level normalized modeling approach of yield volatility for winter wheat and silage maize on different scales within Germany, Jornal für Kulturpflanzen (67) 6, 205–223.

Other

• Hampf, Murken, Gornott, 2024: Zukunftssicher durch Anpassung? Die Rolle klimaresilienter Sorten in der Landwirtschaft. In: Lozán, Graßl, Kasang, Quante & Sillmann: Warnsignal Klima: Wetterextreme schlagen zu - sie werden länger, häufiger & stärker, www.warnsignal-klima.de
• Tomalka, Bereswill, Murken, Thonicke, Gornott, 2024: Policy brief - The potential of forests and trees in addressing climate change Policy recommendations for the Ethiopian context, AGRICA Ethiopia (GIZ, BMZ) and B-EPICC (IKI, BMU).
  FAO, 2023: The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 – Avoiding and reducing losses through investment in resilience. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc7900en
• Gloy, Kephe, Jansen, Ostberg, Kaufmann, Staubach, Tchindjang, Romanovska, Vetter, Tomalka, Kagonbé, Anaba, Zouh, Amougou, Cronauer, Gornott, 2023: Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Cameroon's agricultural sector. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.023.
• Von Loeben, Abigaba, Adriko, Awori, Cartsburg, Chemura, Cronauer, Lipka, Murken, Muzafarova, Noleppa, Romanovska, Tomalka, Weituschat, Zvolsky, Gornott, 2023: Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Uganda's agricultural sector: An assessment of maize and coffee value chains. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.021.
• Laudien, Chemura, Cronauer, Gleixner, Heckmann, Staubach, von Witzke, Gornott, 2023: Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Zambia's agricultural sector. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), DOI: 10.48485/pik.2023.022.
• Hattermann, Fernández, Gleixner, Gloy, Gaedecke, Gornott, Salinas, Nava, Saavedra, Kaufmann, Cartsburg, Noleppa, 2023: Evaluación de riesgo climático para identificar estrategias robustas de adaptación en el sector del agua en Bolivia, A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, https://bivica.org/file/view/id/6432
• von Loeben, Blocher, Destrijcker, Fischer, Gleixner, Hegre, Jansen, Jones, Kjærum, Lindqvist-McGowan, Manger, Mayer, Tomalka, Vesco, Wesch, & Zvolsky, Birner*, Vinke*, Gornott* (2022). Sahel Predictive Analytics Report. *shared last autorship.  https://unis-sahel.org/2022/11/02/sahel-predictive-analytics-report-moving-from-reaction-to-action-anticipating-vulnerability-hotspots-in-the-sahel-in-support-of-uniss/
• Gornott, Graß, Nerger, Bandel, Doucet, 2022: Klimawandel, in Wachendorf, Bürkert, Graß (Hg.) Ökologische Landwirtschaft, 2. aktual. u. erw. Aufl., Verlag Eugen Ulmer, Stuttgart. https://www.utb.de/doi/book/10.36198/9783838555270
• Röhrig, Gloy, von Loeben, Arumugam, Aschenbrenner, Baek, Bado, Chemura, Habtemariam, Kaufmann, Koch, Laudien, Liersch, Lüttringhaus, Murken, Neya, Noleppa, Ostberg, Santo, Schauberger, Shukla, Tomalka, Wesch, Wortmann, Gornott, 2021: Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies for the Agricultural Sector in Burkina Faso. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
• Aschenbrenner, Chemura, Jarawura, Habtemariam, Lüttringhaus, Murken, Röhrig, Tomalka, Gornott, 2021: Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies for the Agricultural Sector in Northern Ghana - A Study at District Level in the Upper West Region. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 118 pp. DOI: 10.48485/pik.2021.001.
• Blocher, Vinke, Schellnhuber, Gleixner, Gornott, George, Kileli Leyani, Laudien, Lobanova, Ludescher, Weisz (2021). Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in the United Republic of Tanzania. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam and International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva.
• Bergmann, Vinke, Fernández Palomino, Gornott, Gleixner, Laudien, Lobanova, Ludescher, Schellnhuber 2020: Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in Peru. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, and International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva.
• Noleppa, Gornott, Lüttringhaus, Hackenberg, Gleixner, 2020: Climate change and its effects on banana production in Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Ecuador, HFFA Research HFFA Research Paper 01/2020
• Murken, Cartsburg, Chemura, Didovets, Gleixner, Koch, Lehmann, Liersch, Lüttringhaus, Rivas Lopez, Noleppa, Roehrig, Schauberger, Shukla, Tomalka, Yalew, Gornott, 2020: Climate risk analysis for identifying and weighing adaptation strategies in Ethiopia’s agricultural sector. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, 150 pp. https://doi.org/10.2312/pik.2020.003
• Wesch, Yalew, Below, Bertelmann, Gornott, Günther, Debelts, Poisson-Quinton, KarimSanogo, Wagner, 2020: Climate Change and Labor in sub-Saharan Africa, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.
• Tomalka, Lange, Röhrig, Gornott, 2020: Climate Risk Profile for Burkina Faso and Niger. A joint publication by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH and the KfW Development Bank, 12 pp., Climate Risk Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa Series.
• Röhrig, Lange, Aschenbrenner, Chemura, Murken, Grams, Klockemann, Romanato, Haider, Gornott, 2019: Climate Risk Profile for Ghana. A joint publication by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH and the KfW Development Bank, 12 pp.
• Murken, Aschenbrenner, Chemura, Hattermann, Koch, Lehmann, Liersch, Röhrig, Schauberger, Yalew, Gornott, 2019: Climate risk analysis for identifying and weighing adaptation strategies in Ghana’s agricultural sector. A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, 94 pp, https://doi.org/10.2312/pik.2020.001.
• Lüttringhaus, Noleppa, Gornott, Lotze-Campen, 2019: Climate change impacts on European crop production – A literature review, HFFA Research Paper 01 / 2019.
• Gornott, 2018: Improving crop modeling approaches for supporting farmers to cope with weather risks, Dissertation at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19266.
• Liersch, Gornott, 2015: Effects of climate change on sustainable food and nutrition security – with case studies in Kenya, Pakistan and Peru, Report Welthungerhilfe.

As sole project lead

• Agrica Sahel (2021-2023): Development of agricultural forecast systems and evaluation of adaptation strategies in the Sahel region, funded by BMZ with 1 800 000 Euro.
• InACRI (2020-2022): Implementation of agricultural insurances in Kenya, funded by BMBF with 500 000 Euro.
• CC&H (2020-2022): Climate change and health in Burkina Faso and Kenya, funded by DFG with 220 000 Euro.
• Geo.X (2019-2022): Coffee value chains in Ethiopia and Vietnam, funded by Helmholtz Association with 200 000 Euro.
• SNRD (2019-2019): Climate change and labor in sub-Saharan Africa, funded by GIZ with 6 000 Euro.
• Agrica West Africa (2018-2020): Agricultural modeling and evaluation of adaptation strategies in Niger and Burkina Faso, funded by GIZ and BMZ with 585 000 Euro.
• Agrica (2018-2020): Evaluation of adaptation strategies in Ethiopia, funded by GIZ and BMZ with 640 000 Euro.
• GhanAgrica (2018-2020): Agricultural modeling and evaluation of adaptation strategies for Ghana at national and district level, funded by GIZ and BMZ with 320 000 Euro.
• ClimSec (2018-2020): Climate change and security, development of an early warning system in Ethiopia, Mali and Burkina Faso, funded by the German Foreign Office with 200 000 Euro.
• AgRATI Demonstrator (2018-2019): Implementation of agricultural insurance solutions in India, funded by Climate-KIC with 300 000 Euro.
• AgRATI Accelerator (2017-2018): Implementation of agricultural insurance solutions in Tanzania, funded by Climate-KIC with 50 000 Euro.
• CLIMSU (2017-2018): Evaluation of sugar value chains in Brazil, funded by Climate-KIC with 150 000 Euro.
• YLIT (2017-2017): Development of index insurances for Tanzania, funded by Climate-KIC with 30 000 Euro.

Shared project lead

• H2020_Insurance (2017-2020): Development of agricultural insurance solutions, EU-funded with 5 000 000 Euro.
• CAT Peru, together with GAF AG (2017-2018): Improvement of agricultural information systems in Peru, funded by GIZ, IKI and BMUB with 500 000 Euro.
• CYE - Crop Yield Estimates India, together with GAF AG (2017-2018): Development of yield indexes for India, funded by Munich Re with 240 000 Euro.
• Food Security, Migration and Conflict (FSMC), together with ZALF (2017-2017): Migration dynamics in East Africa, funded by the Leibniz Association with 24 000 Euro.
• CYE – Crop Yield Estimates Tanzania, together with GAF AG (2016-2017): Development of yield indexes for Tanzania, funded by Munich Re with 120 000 Euro.

Work package lead

• Green Vision Central Asia (2020-2024): Development of yield forecast systems, funded by the German Foreign Office with 2 300 000 Euro.
• EPICC (2018-2021): Climate services for Peru, India and Tanzania, funded by IKI and BMUB with 4 800 000 Euro.
• GeoCare (2017-2019): Advancement of yield forecasts for Germany focusing on big data in agriculture, funded by BLE with 280 000 Euro.
• Trans-SEC (2013-2018): Innovative strategies for safeguarding food security using technology and knowledge transfer, funded by BMBF, BMZ and GlobE with 7 500 000 Euro.

• Member of the Strategischer Begleitkreis (StBK) for transformation of agricultural systems of the BMZ
• Selected as Germany‘s “Top 40 under 40” in 2022
• Invited member of Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF) Working Group of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
• Member of the expert panel of the Clearing House for Risk Transfer from the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)
• Member of the scientific advisory board of the DAAD climapAfrica – Climate change research in Africa network
• Member of the executive board of the Council for Tropical and Subtropical Agricultural Research (ATSAF)
• Organized Side Event at the Conference of the Parties (COP): Several Side Events at COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, German Pavilion and EU Side Event at COP26 in Glasgow (2021), official UNFCCC Side at COP25 in Madrid (2019); Side Event in the EU Pavilion at COP 25 in Madrid (2019), COP 24 in Katowice (2018), COP 23 in Bonn (2017), COP 22 in Marrakesh (2016)
• Selected as word-leading supplier for agricultural loss assessments by Munich Re
• Policy advice in the field of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector for several ministries and international organizations
• Outreach to Media: via several newspaper articles (among them: Zeit, Spiegel, NZZ, Tagesspiegel, Handelsblatt, DPA), radio, television (Tagesschau, heute, nTV, hr3), and different podcasts