Nico Wunderling is a PostDoctoral Researcher in the Earth Resilience Science Unit and the Center for Critical Computational Studies. He is also a guest researcher at the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University in the lab of Simon Levin. His research focuses on interacting tipping elements in the Earth system, ranging from elements in the physical climate system to global ecosystems.
FutureLab / Science Unit
Contact
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
nico.wunderling[at]pik-potsdam.de
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam
14412 Potsdam
ORCID
Since April 2024, I am a shared Post-Doctoral Researcher between the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Center for Critical Computational Studies. Here, my research focuses on interacting tipping elements in the Earth system, ranging from elements in the physical climate system to global ecosystems. I investigate how the stability of these particularly vulnerable components are affected by human activity and might endanger the overall stability of the Earth system. I am also interested in the effects of social sustainability transformations on the risk for dangerous climate tipping events.
For that purpose, I am working with models informed by complex dynamical systems and network science, as well as Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs).
Positions and Roles
- 2024-ongoing: Co-lead of the chapter Tipping risks in the Earth System for the Global Tipping Points Report 2025
- 2024-ongoing: Co-editor for the Special Issue Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene for the EGU journal Earth System Dynamics
- 2024-ongoing: Joint Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in the Earth Resilience Science Unit and the Center for Critical Computational Studies (Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
- 2021-ongoing: Guest scientist as part of the ERSI initiative at the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University (Levin Lab)
- 2021-2024: Joint Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene and the Stockholm Resilience Centre (Stockholm University, Sweden), project: Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, advisor: Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström
- 2017-2024: Member of the COPAN collaboration
- 2017 - 2021: Associated member in the project DominoES (Domino effects in the Earth system - Can Antarctica tip climate policy?)
- 2017 - 2021: PhD at PIK, the Humboldt University of Berlin and the University of Potsdam within the framework of the IRTG 1740 between Germany and Brazil
Education
- 2017 - 2021: PhD with Prof. Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann and Dr. Jonathan Donges in climate physics at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research and the University of Potsdam and the Humboldt University of Berlin
Topic: Nonlinear dynamics and interactions of tipping elements in the Earth System - 2017: Masters in Physics at the Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
- 2014: Bachelors in Physics at the Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
Research stays:
- February - March 2024: Santa Fe Institute & Princeton University (Lab of S. Levin)
- March - April & November 2022, March 2023: Lab of S. Levin (Princeton University, United States)
- January - March 2020: Lab of H. Barbosa (University of São Paulo, Brazil)
- August - October 2018: Lab of H. Barbosa (University of São Paulo, Brazil)
- September 2015 - March 2016: Semester and Research Internship abroad at the University of York, United Kingdom
Research interests
Topics:
- Tipping elements in the climate system and the biosphere
- Interactions between tipping elements
- Cascading transitions
- Social/Social-ecological transformations towards sustainability
- Climate feedbacks and Earth resilience
Methods:
- Complex systems and network science
- Nonlinear dynamical systems
- Ensemble methods
- Risk assessments
- Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
Accepted/In Review/Submitted
- S. Loriani*, A. Bartsch*, E. Calamita, J.F. Donges, S. Hebden, M. Hirota, A. Landolfi, T. Nagler, B. Sakschewski, A. Staal, J. Verbesselt, R. Winkelmann, R. Wood, N. Wunderling, Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables meet the needs?, accepted (Surveys in Geophysics), 2024. *These authors share the first authorship.
- J. Rosser, R. Winkelmann, N. Wunderling, Cryosphere tipping elements decisive for tipping risks and cascading effects in the Earth system, accepted (Communications Earth & Environment), 2024.
- C.W. Arnscheidt, SJ. Beard, T. Hobson, P. Ingram, L. Kemp, L. Mani, A. Marcoci, K. Mbeva, S.S. Ó hÉeigeartaigh, A. Sandberg, L.S. Sundaram, N. Wunderling, Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk, in review, 2024.
- G. Dal Pra, C.Y.-C. Chan, T. Burkhanov, B. Sutherland, C.W. Arnscheidt, R. Cremades, C.Z. Cremer, V. Galaz, A. Gambhir, K. Heikkinen, M. Hinge, D. Hoyer, F.U. Jehn, P. Larcey, L. Kemp, P. Keys, E. Kiyaei, S. Lade, D. Manheim, D.A. McKay, D. Pandey, T. Pegram, V. Spaiser, K. Tómasdóttir, S. Werners, M. Workman, N. Wunderling, H. Yamashita, A Horizon Scan of Global Catastrophic Risks, in review, 2024.
- F.U. Jehn, L.G. Gajewski, J. Hedlund, C.W. Arnscheidt, L. Xia, N. Wunderling, D. Denkenberger, Food trade disruption after global catastrophes, in review, 2024.
- E. Enache, O. Kozak, N. Wunderling, J. Vollmer, Constraining safe and unsafe overshoots in saddle-node bifurcations, in review, 2024.
- N. Wunderling, S. Perri, J. Rockström, M. Oppenheimer, A. Porporato, J.F. Donges, S.A. Levin, W. Barfuss, Concerted efforts of politics, society and science mitigate climate tipping risks in a coupled human-Earth system model, in review, 2023.
- E.K. Smith*, N. Kitzmann*, M. Milkoreit*, R. Winkelmann*, A.-S. Crépin, C. Eder, N. Harring, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, T.M. Lenton, F. Mauelshagen, K. Minor, I.M. Otto, A. Rezai, J. Scheffran, I. Stadelmann-Steffen, R. van der Ploeg, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges*, Criticality and critical agency in societal tipping processes towards sustainability, in review, 2023. *These authors share the first authorship.
Publications
2024:
- T. Möller*, A. (Ernest) Högner*, C.-F. Schleussner, S. Bien, N.H. Kitzmann, R.D. Lamboll, J. Rogelj, J.F. Donges, J. Rockström, N. Wunderling, Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, Nature Communications, 15, 6192, 2024. *These authors share the first authorship.
Highlight paper in Nature Communications: Climate change impacts - V. Junquera, M. Schlüter, J. Rocha, N. Wunderling, S. Levin, D. Rubenstein, J.-C. Castella, P. Meyfroidt, Crop booms as regime shifts, Royal Society Open Science, 11, 231571, 2024.
- N. Wunderling*, A. von der Heydt*, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C.H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R.M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J.T. Bruun, C.M. Chiessi, H.K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J.F. Donges, S.K.J. Falkena, A.K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N.J. Steinert, M. Willeit, Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review, Earth System Dynamics, 15, 41-74, 2024. *These authors share the first authorship.
- A. Staal, J. Theeuwen, L. Wang-Erlandsson, N. Wunderling, S. Dekker, Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of reforestation, Global Change Biology, 30, e17096, 2024.
- V. Benson, J.F. Donges, N. Boers, M. Hirota, A. Morr, A. Staal, J. Vollmer, N. Wunderling, Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances, Environmental Research Letters, 19, 024029, 2024.
- M. Bustamante, J. Roy, D. Ospina, ..., N. Wunderling, et al., Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024, Global Sustainability, 1-58, online first, 2023.
- H. Mevenkamp, N. Wunderling, U. Bhatt, T. Carman, J.F. Donges, H. Genet, S. Serbin, R. Winkelmann, E.S. Euskirchen, Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters, Environmental Research Letters, 18, 084032, 2023.
- S. Perri, S. Levin, L. Hedin, N. Wunderling, A. Porporato, Socio-political feedback on the path to Net-Zero, One Earth, 6, 725–737, 2023.
- N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, J. Rockström, S. Loriani, D.I. Armstrong McKay, P.D.L. Ritchie, B. Sakschewski, J.F. Donges, Global warming overshoots increase risk of climate tipping cascades in a network model, Nature Climate Change (cover story), 13, 75-82, 2023.
2022:
- N. Wunderling*, F. Wolf*, O.A. Tuinenburg, A. Staal, Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth's moisture recycling hubs, Nature Communications, 13, 6574, 2022. *These authors share the first authorship.
- N. Wunderling, A. Staal, B. Sakschewski, M. Hirota, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges, H.M.J. Barbosa*, R. Winkelmann*, Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119, 32, 2022. *These authors jointly supervised this study.
- N. Kitzmann, P. Romanczuk, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, Detecting contagious spreading of urban innovations on the global city network, EPJST (European Physical Journal Special Topics), 2022.
- R. Winkelmann*, J.F. Donges*, E.K. Smith*, M. Milkoreit*, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling, T.M. Lenton, Social tipping processes for sustainability: An analytical framework, Ecological Economics, 192, 107242, 2022. *These authors share the first authorship.
2021:
- A. Klose, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges, What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 125011, 2021.
- J. Kohler, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Vollmer, Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit, Physical Review E, 104(10), 044301, 2021.
- N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths and R. Winkelmann, Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics, 12, 601-619, 2021.
- N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges, Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package, EPJST (European Physical Journal Special Topics), 2021.
- M. Drüke, W. von Bloh, B. Sakschewski, N. Wunderling, S. Petri, M. Cardoso, H.M.J. Barbosa, K. Thonicke, Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model, EPJST (European Physical Journal Special Topics), 2021.
2020:
- N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges, Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades, New Journal of Physics, 22(123031), 2020.
- N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann, Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice, Nature Communications, 11(5177), 2020.
- N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann and J.F. Donges, How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking Micro- to Macro-scales, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(4), 043129, 2020. *These authors share the first authorship.
- J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges, Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks, Physical Review E, 101(4), p.042311, 2020
Open Source Software
- PyCascades: Python framework for simulating tipping cascades on complex networks, including a step-by-step tutorial and a model description paper (newest development version here)
Reports
2023:
- N. Wunderling*, A. von der Heydt*, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C.H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R.M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J.T. Bruun, C.M. Chiessi, H.K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J.F. Donges, S.K.J. Falkena, A.K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N.J. Steinert, M. Willeit (2023). Chapter 1.5: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades. In Lenton, T. M.; Armstrong McKay, D. I.; Loriani, S.; Abrams, J. F.; Lade, S. J.; Donges, J. F.; Milkoreit, M.; Powell, T.; Smith, S. R.; Zimm, C.; Buxton, J. E.; Bailey, E.; Laybourn, L.; Ghadiali, A. and Dyke, J. G. eds. The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. * These authors share the first authorship.
- S. Hebden, L. Pereira, N.J. Steinert, N. Wunderling, K. Zickfeld (2023). Insight 1: Overshooting 1.5°C is fast becoming inevitable. Minimising the magnitude and duration of overshoot is essential. In 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024, Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP, Stockholm.
Current funding
- Center for Critical Computational Studies (Goethe University Frankfurt) and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Planetary Boundaries and Tipping Point Science Initiatives)
Former funding
- ERA-EU-Horizon2020 Project
- IRTG 1740 (International Research Training Group, PhD).
- German National Academic Foundation (Studienstiftung des dt. Volkes, PhD-scholarship)
Lectures and courses
- SS 2024: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Earth System Science & Anthropocene" for the Master's program CLEWS, University of Potsdam
- WS 2023/2024: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Global sustainability in the Anthropocene", Institute for environmental sciences and geography, University of Potsdam
- SS 2023: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Earth System Science & Anthropocene" for the Master's program CLEWS, University of Potsdam
- WS 2022/2023: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Global sustainability in the Anthropocene", Institute for environmental sciences and geography, University of Potsdam
- SS 2022: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Earth System Science & Anthropocene" for the Master's program CLEWS, University of Potsdam
- WS 2021/2022: Co-Speaker in the lecture on "Global sustainability in the Anthropocene", Institute for environmental sciences and geography, University of Potsdam
- 2017-2019: Co-Tutor for the school on "The Earth as a complex dynamical system: from climate change to sustainability transformation", for the German Academic Scholarship Foundation
- WS 2018/2019: Tutor in the lecture series on "Introduction to Climate Physics", Department of Physics, Potsdam University with Prof. Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann
Supervised students
2024:
- Jonathan Kroenke (PhD researcher, 2024-ongoing)
- Felix de Cecco (Master student, University of Potsdam, 2024/2025)
- Niklas Lohmann (Master student, Technical University Berlin, 2024/2025)
- Jakob Harteg (Master student, University of Copenhagen, 2023/2024): Assessing the stability of glacial-interglacial cycles: A stochastic model analysis of Earth system resilience
- David Strahl (Master student, University of Potsdam, 2023/2024): Inference of climate tipping interactions: From dynamical systems to data-driven perspectives
- Annika (Ernest) Högner (Master student, University of Potsdam, 2023/2024): Data-driven analysis of causal pathways between tipping elements in the Earth system
- Michelle Grunwald (Master student, University of Potsdam, 2023/2024): World-Earth Resilience Trajectories in the Anthropocene - The role of migration dynamics in a conceptualized social-ecological modeling framework
2023:
- Jonathan Rosser (PhD student, Cambridge University, 2023, ERA fellow and summer intern): Cryosphere tipping elements decisive for uncertainties in tipping risk assessments
2022:
- Astrid Gjelsvik (Intern, University of Oslo, 2022): Tipping fast and slow - quantifying early warning signals for systems of different time scales
- Laeo Crnkovic-Rubsamen and Jasmine Zhang (HMEI summer internship program, Princeton University, 2022): Coupling social and climate tipping dynamics
- Vitus Benson (Master student, University of Leipzig, 2021/2022): Studying α-stable Lévy noise in coupled double-well potentials with applications in climate science
- Lena Schmidt (Master student, Free University Berlin, 2021/2022): Spatial early warning signal detection in a complex network of the Amazon rainforest
2021:
- Nora Fahrenbach (Bachelor-Internship, The University of Edinburgh, 2021): Early warning signals of interacting tipping elements in the Amazon rainforest
2020:
- Valentin Wohlfarth (Master student, Humboldt University of Berlin, 2019/2020): Tipping cascades on the International Trade Network and the effects of meso- and macroscopic structure on tipping dynamics
- Hannah Meevenkamp (Bachelor student, University of Göttingen, 2020): Causal loop network analysis of Arctic permafrost feedbacks
- Jan Kohler (Bachelor student, University of Leipzig, 2019/2020): Dynamics of tipping on stochastic complex networks
2019:
- Jonathan Kroenke (Master student, University of Potsdam, 2018/2019): Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks
- Benedikt Stumpf (Master student, Free University Berlin, 2018/2019): The role of motifs in complex networks of tipping elements
2024:
- Interview on "Lohnt sich das Festhalten am 1,5-Grad-Ziel?" for Hessischer Rundfunk and Tagesschau-online (November 2024, in german)
- Contribution to the documentary "Climate Extremes: At the Abyss?" (A comprehensive exploration into planetary tipping points and non-linear dynamics) by OoS Pictures EHF and David Wallerstein (October 2024)
- Selected media echo on the article "Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks" (August 2024): Berliner Tagesspiegel, Welt, VDI, alle wetter! (01.08.2024; on Earth overshoot day and tipping elements, in german)
- Futures Lounge for Initiative D2030 e.V.: Kipppunkte in Klima und Gesellschaft - Wenn Systeme ins Wanken geraten (in german, April 2024), together with Prof. Dr. Ilona Otto, moderated by Klaus Burmeister
- Interview for Klimareporter and Frankfurter Rundschau on "Eine Stabilisierung der Kippelemente wäre noch möglich" bzw. "Positive Kipppunkte machen Hoffnung" (in german, February 2024)
- TV-Interview contribution to the Klima-Update (n-tv, RTL): Wie retten wir die Antarktis? (in german, January 2024)
2023:
- TV-Interview with Nano 3Sat: COP28-Zwischen Ambition und Realität (in german, December 2023)
- Interview with Politico on the 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024 (particularly Insight #1: Overshooting 1.5°C is fast becoming inevitable. Minimising the magnitude and duration of overshoot is essential, December 2023)
- Podcast Interview on "Wenn das Klima kippt" as part of the nachhaltig.kritisch-Podcast with Ann-Sophie Henne und Robin Jüngling (in german, July 2023)
- Podcast Interview on "Klima und Kipppunkte: vom Wandel durch Design oder Desaster" as part of the Klima-und-wir-Podcast with Maximilian Arnhold and the RedaktionsnetzwerkDeutschland, RTL+ (in german, February 2023)
- Radio Interview on "Kipppunkte - wie das Klimasystem ins Wanken kommt" for the RBB Inforadio (in german, February 2023)
- Television interview and video on climate tipping elements for the TV show "DAS!" for NDR television (in german, January 2023)
2022:
- Radio Interview on "Wann kippt das Klima?" for detektor.fm (in german, November 2022)
- Panel discussion, "News from the near future - Handlungsoptionen für eine aus der Balance geratene Welt", Volkswagen Art4All, Hamburger Bahnhof, Berlin (September 2022)
- Selected media echo on the article "Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest" (September 2022): Mongabay, EOS AGU
- Entry in the journal Klima und Recht on "Warum jedes zehntel Grad zählt: Der Einfluss von Kippelementen" together with Frederik Wolf (in german, July 2022)
2021:
- Radio Interview on "Cascading Tipping Points" for Radio Ecoshock (November 2021)
- Interview on "Klimakrise - Kippelement und Kipppunkte" (in german) with Dora Stanić (Psychologists4 Future, November 2021)
- Podcast interview on "Tipping points des Klimas" (in german) as part of the ENPowerPodcast (August 2021)
- Entry in SIAM news on "A network approach to Cascading Tipping Points in the Amazon rainforest" together with Arie Staal (August 2021)
- Selected media echo on the article "Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming" (June 2021): The Guardian, Spiegel, Berliner Tagesspiegel, Zeit, Forbes
2020:
- Selected media echo on the article "Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice" (October 2020): Berliner Tagesspiegel, NewScientist, Daily Mail, El País, Agence France-Presse
- Scilight (May 2020): Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions, Article and interview on the paper "How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales".
- Friedrich-Hirzebruch Promotionspreis 2023 of the German Academic Scholarship Foundation (Studienstiftung des dt. Volkes): Video
- Potsdamer Nachwuchswissenschaftspreis 2022
- German Academic Scholarship Foundation (Studienstiftung des dt. Volkes, PhD-scholarship, student scholarship), 2014-2017 and 2018-2021
