Description

In the specific case of wine areas, the evidences used for the definition of the resilience degree of the wine cultivation have been brought back, on the one hand, to the entrepreneurial vitality and, on the other, to the specialization at municipal level in the cultivation of the examined species, considering also at the same time the relevance taken by the areas subject to quality production regulations DOC, DOCG, etc.. In fact, a high level of production specialization and quality is to be intended, in this case, as a synonymous of farm flexibility and reaction capability due to environmental and climatic alterations.

In this case, the economic loss linked with the wine regional component is to be intended as the missed incomes resulting from the damages undergone by the vineyards. Therefore, the starting datum needed for this typology of evaluation is the Gross Income of the Farm Production Process, which has been then calculated as the difference between the monetary value of the gross production of the activity itself and some specific costs (variable costs) (eq. 1).

GI = GP - VC

(1)

where: GI = gross income; GP = gross production; VC = variable costs

Gross production, in turn, has been calculated as the product between the yield (q ha-1) and the value per unit of the total gross production (€ q-1), which means the value of the main product and/or of the processed product, the by-products and the Communitarian integrations. The variable costs are the costs linked with the interests on the capital assets, the remunerations for the seasonal workers and the costs for the acquisition of the inputs characterized by a total wearing out (which end their effect within the farm year).

In this way it has been possible to differentiate the costs and the incomes of the Tuscan wine cultivations both in relation to the plain, the hill and the mountain areas of the Tuscan Provinces, and in relation to exchange areas of the different designation of origin (Chianti Classico, Brunello, ecc.).

The appraisal process for the Gross Income of the Farm Productive Process for the future scenarios was based, instead, on the estimation of the existing correlation between the present Gross Income (2007) and the vine cultivation vulnerability levels for the years 2036, 2067 and 2099. In particular, the Gross Income of the Farm Productive Process, considered as the yearly profit (u), has been defined as it is shown in equation 2.

(2)

Where: u2007 = Farm gross income year 2007 without production alterations ≡ a*2007 = annuity 2007

Thus, the Present Value has been estimated as an initial accumulation of "average" annuity for each referring period (2007-2036, 2036-2067, 2067-2099). The summation of the Present Values for the three referring periods (PA2007-2099), represents the revenue of the wine sector (at the present time - year 2007) net of the income reductions due to climatic changes.

The last phase regarded the definition of the total economic loss for the wine sector, aggregated at regional scale. The total economic loss (or financial loss - FL) will be given by the difference between the Present Value (PA*2007-2099) of the series of annuities that are likely to happen in the period 2007-2009 without an alteration of the production ( a* 2007), and the Present Value of the annuities that are likely to happen in the period 2007-2099, with alterations in the production (PA2007-2099).

(3)

where:
PA*2007-2099 = present value of the annuities for the period 2007-2099 without productive alterations
r = rate of interest (3,5%)

Toolbox tags

This toolbox entry has been labelled with the following tags:

Sector:		independent
Spatial scale:		independent
Temporal focus:		present; future
Onset:		independent
Role in decision process:		diagnostic
Level of skills required:		modest
Data requirements:		modest
Adaptation tasks:		Potential impact projection; Residual impact projection

Applicability

This method is used in the Southern Europe case study pertaining to a changing climate's effects on wine producing regions in Italy. More details on the case study can be seen via the case study navigator.

Accessibility

The conceptual method presented above can be applied to various cases, but significant research and inputs in terms of impacts, vulnerability, and resilience is required. This method should not be seen as a standalone tool or "plug and play" method whereby a simple scenario can be run, but rather a detailed part of a larger study.

Further Reading and References

Bernetti I, Casini L, Marinelli N (2006) Wine and globalisation: changes in the international market structure and the position of Italy. Br Food J 108: 306-315.

Bentabet L, Zhu YM, Dupuis O, Kaftdandjian V, Babot D, Rombaut M (2000) Use of fuzzy clustering for determining mass functions in Dempster-Shafer theory, presented at Signal Processing Proceedings, WCCCsICSP 2000. 5th International Conference on.

Toolbox category

This detail page belongs to toolbox category
Modelling of socio-economic impacts

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