A further challenge for adaptation
decision making arises in terms of estimating the value of waiting for
more information before making a decision. This is particularly the
case when the set of options includes options with long investment
horizons, or when a decision is considering adaptation to mid- to
long-term hazards, and when the options considered are flexible.
An
option is
flexible
if it allows to switch to other options that might be preferable in the
future once more is known about the changing climate. If one or more
options are flexible over the lifetime of the decision, then the
analyst can incorporate this into her appraisal of options, and the
criterion of flexibility of options becomes important. More knowledge
may become available through direct observations and improved
scientific knowledge. For example, the analyst may know that a study on
the impacts of sea level rise in her region will be completed in two
years. Her consideration of options for coastal defence should include
the expectation that improved probabilistic knowledge will become
available.
When at least one option is flexible,
a set of approaches uses the criterion of flexibility to decide between
alternative strategies. Flexible options are favored over non flexible
ones and decisions are delayed to keep future options open (Hallegate,
2009). The adaptation pathways approach implements the criterion of
flexibility by characterizing alternative strategies in terms of two
attributes: i) adaptation tipping points (ATP), which are points beyond
which strategies are no longer effective (Kwadijk et al., 2010), and
ii) what alternative strategies are available once a tipping point has
been reached (Haasnoot et al., 2012). Importantly, the exact time when
an ATP is reached does not matter, it is rather the flexibility of
having alternative strategies available that drives the decision.
Prominent applications of this approach include the Thames Estuary 2100
Plan (Lowe et al., 2009; Penning-Roswell et al. 2011), the Dutch Delta
Programme (Kabat et al., 2009) and the New York City Panel on Climate
Change (Rosenzweig et al., 2011).
Exemplary methods and tools
| Name | Description | References
|
| Adaptation pathways
| The adaptation pathways approach implements the criterion of flexibility by characterizing alternative strategies in terms of two attributes: i) adaptation tipping points (ATP), which are points beyond which strategies are no longer effective (Kwadijk et al., 2010), and ii) what alternative strategies are available once a tipping point has been reached (Haasnoot et al., 2012). Importantly, the exact time when an ATP is reached does not matter, it is rather the flexibility of having alternative strategies available that drives the decision.
| Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., & Deursen, W. A. v. (2012). Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change, 115(3-4), 795-819. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0444-2
|
