You are here: Home / Toolbox / Details

---

Toolbox home References

Behavioural research more broadly is carried out using a variety of methods, e.g. laboratory experiment, field experiment, econometric analysis, etc., in order to understand how people make decisions, and how those decisions vary according to contextual factors. The insights derived from such applications can then be drawn upon in order to explain decisions in other situation, e.g. why individuals might purchase lottery tickets when the expected value of doing so is negative.

In the domain of CCVIA, behaviour analytical method address the question of how actors (organisations or individuals) make adaptation decisions and how those decisions vary according to contextual factors. The application of these methods is based on the assumption that knowledge on what drives individual decision making is necessary in order to advance adaptation. For example, understanding factors explaining household decisions to take flood risk reduction measures can help improve the design of flood risk communication strategies.

The top-level criteria for classifying behaviour analytical approaches are the theoretical assumptions they require regarding factors driving individual behaviour. Here, we follow the classification of socio-economic and ecological modelling approaches developed by Cooke et al. (2009). These authors different between one type of method based on assumptions of social psychological theory and assumptions characterised by rational actors and utility optimisation underlying other types of method. The former method type builds on prominent approaches such as Protection Motivation Theory, which explains actions in terms of individuals' perceptions of risks and capabilities. Conversely, the assumption that actors behaviour is driven by the maximisation of utility defines a wide ranging literature that can be further differentiated according to differing approaches in micro-economics and game theory discussed below.

Type	Behavioural analytic
Question addressed	What actions will an actor take? What consequences will these actions have?
Sub-type	Social psychological	Maximising
		Utility maximisation	Bounded rationality
Conditions of applicability	Individual decision making is, to a great extent, responsible for how climate (and their changes) affect the study unit
Theoretical assumptions	Individuals take action based on perceived risks and perceived effectiveness of actions in reducing risks.	Individuals take action to maximise utility.
		Individuals have complete information and are able to construct complete preference relations.	Information is not freely available and individuals have limited cognitive abilities.
Steps taken	Select explanatory factors based on literature Identify actors and decisions	Select of actors and constraints Specify of decision rule for actor
Results achieved	Model explaining adaptive actions. Prediction of actions in different situations.	Prediction of actions. Consequences of predicted actions.
Example cases	Grothmann and Patt (2005) address the question of what motivates actors to take adaptation actions in two cases of local level resources users. They investigate the role of climate information in adaptation decisionmaking in cases studies in Germany and Zimbabwe through interviews, focus groups with a group of farmers with access to climate forecast information. These observations aimed at eliciting the role of seasonal climate forecast information in crop´planting decisions of farmers. It was found that an actor's perceived ability to act effectively in the face of a risk or threat as an important determinant of the action taken. Berkhout et al. (2006) address the question of how organisations adapt to climate change already occurring and projected. Based on models of organisational learning they conduct interviews and focus groups with 9 companies in the housing and water sectors in the UK aimed at how, or whether, they have reacted to climate impacts or climate information. They find adaptations to climate change, are similar in some ways to adaptations to regulatory or technological changes, however due to longer timescales of feedback to decisions related to adaptation there are differences. Business have difficulties in taking adaptive action due to the weakness in signals of climate change, and the uncertainty in regard to benefits of acting.	Rounsevell et al. (2003) apply a linear programming model to address the question of how crop rotations vary between location. The model inputs costs and benefits of crop types and time constraints. The results predict how rotations vary between locations subject to farmers maximizing profit.	Botzen and van der Bergh (2009) use bounded rationality assumptions to estimate risk premiums under different climate change scenarios for the Netherlands They find estimation results suggest that a profitable flood insurance market could be feasible.
Issues involved	Difficult to observe cognitive barriers; studies often rely on stated intentions rather than observed behaviour.	Assumptions may not be realistic.