Entry point I

Appraising vulnerability and impacts

Entering at the first stage of the adaptation learning cycle means that an adaptation decision (a set of alternative options) has not yet been identified. Rather, tasks need to be carried out in order to gain further knowledge on the climate change related risks and opportunities. Many of tasks and methods involved in this are called vulnerability assessments in the academic literature, policy documents and other guidances. The meaning of vulnerability is, however, highly contested. Assessing vulnerability can mean anything from projecting impacts to carrying out an institutional analysis. Hence, the concept is not useful for giving unambiguous methodological guidance and we refrain from using this concept in the following.

It is important to note that understanding vulnerability and impact, including the opportunities presented by these, relies on two equally important and complementary subtasks:

1. Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical.
2. Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts. Capacity is analysed using a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical ones.

The early work on adaptation focused on the first sub-task. Recently, the adaptation literature places a stronger emphasis on the latter aspects, because it has been found that both cognitive and institutional barriers often prevent adaptation action. Further, in some other cases, it has been found that large constraints on knowledge of future climate and impacts is not a limit to adaptation (Dessai et al., 2008; Adger et al., 2009; Moser et al., 2011).

There is, however, no general answer to the question whether knowledge on impacts or capacities is more important to adaptation. Depending on characteristics of the AS different emphasis must be placed on the two aspects.

For private adaptation problems, it may suffice to produce knowledge on impacts in order to understand risks and opportunities. This is because private actors, particularly individuals, are generally knowledgeable in regard to their own capacities. There may be other cases, however, in which a private actor also needs to consider the capacity of other private or public actors. An insurance company, for example, that wants to understands its climate change related risks and opportunities may also be interested in how home owners (i.e., other private actors) may react to increasing climate risks. These are not considered here, because they involve assessing the capacities of others.

Further, in some other cases, private actors, particularly community groups, firms or organisations, may find it necessary to carry-out a self-assessment of their own capacities. This is a special case of the private adaptation problem, in which a private actor is not knowledgeable of its own capacities.

For public adaptation problems, there is usually the need to also generate knowledge on two other aspects related to capacity. As the public actor aims to influence private adaptation, she needs to understand the capacities of private actors in terms of what drives adaptation decisions of private actors and which institutions influence their behaviour.