There is increasing policy interest in the appraisal of
options, as adaptation moves from theory to practice. At the same time,
it is recognised that the appraisal of climate change adaptation
involves a number of major challenges, particularly the consideration
of uncertainty in the climate impacts addressed. In response, a number
of existing and new decision support tools are being considered for
adaptation.
The European Commission FP7 funded
MEDIATION project (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts
and AdaptaTION) is looking at adaptation decision support tools, in
line with its objectives to advance the analysis of impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation, and to promote knowledge sharing through
a MEDIATION Adaptation Platform. To complement the information on the
Platform, a series of Policy Briefing Notes have been produced on
Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaptation.
An
overview of all the decision support tools reviewed is provided
in
Policy
Briefing Note 1:
Method Overview, which summarises each method, discusses the
potential relevance for adaptation and provides guidance on their
potential applicability. The methods considered include existing
appraisal tools (cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and
multicriteria analysis), as well as techniques that more fully address
uncertainty (real options analysis, robust decision making, portfolio
analysis and iterative risk (adaptive) management). It also includes
complementary tools that can assist in adaptation assessment, including
analytical hierarchic processes, social network analysis and adaptation
turning points. Additional information on each method is presented in a
series of
separate
Policy Briefing Notes.
This
Policy Brief (Note 5) provides a summary of
Portfolio Analysis.
It provides a brief synthesis of the approach, its strengths and
weaknesses, the relevance for adaptation, how it considers uncertainty,
and presents case study examples. It is stressed that this note only
provides an overview: more detailed information is available in
MEDIATION deliverables, and sources and links on the MEDIATION
Adaptation Platform.