Publikationen

In Press 

  • E.K. Smith*/M. Wiedermann*, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, R. Winkelmann,
    A global social activation model of enabling conditions for positive social tipping - the role of sea-level rise anticipation and climate change concern,
    Earth System Dynamics (2023),
    preprint EGUSphere, DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622,
    * shared lead-authorship
  • L. Nicola, R. Frøystad, A. Juarez-Martinez, M. Menthon, A. C. Moraes Luzardi, K. Turner, S. F. Wilson, N. B. Karlsson, T. van den Akker, A. Ambelorun, M. Andernach, M. J. Bentley, G. Bianchi, L. Bird, C. Carter, A. Castillo-Llarena, N. Coffey, E. Dawson, S. de Roda Husman, O. Eisen, T. Gregov, I. J. Hewitt, M. Hofsteenge, L. Jain, M. James, F. Jesse, M. Lauritzen, G. Lu, M. Mühl, V. Patterson, F. Pattyn, C. Rahlves, T. Rieckh, J. N. Richter, F. R. Schalamon, S. Schöll, S. Shukla, K. Verro, R. Winkelmann, C. Wirths, B. Keisling,
    Where do we want the glaciological community to be in 2073? EDI challenges and visions from the 2023 Karthaus Summer School,
    Journal of Glaciology (2025).

2025



2024


    

  • R. M. Roman-Cuesta, F. Dentener, S. Galmarini, M. Milkoreit, D. Armstrong McKay, T. De Groeve, P. D. Dennis, G. Janssens-Maenhout, S. Loriani, A. Ruiz Moreno, 
    Earth System Tipping Points are a threat to Europe, 
    Science for Policy Brief, JRC140827 (2025).
    • 











    

  • H. Seroussi, T. Pelle, W. H. Lipscomb, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Albrecht, J. Alvarez-Solas, X. Asay-Davis, J.-B. Barre, C. J. Berends, J. Bernales, J. Blasco, J. Caillet, D. M. Chandler, V. Coulon, R. Cullather, C. Dumas, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, J. Garbe, F. Gillet-Chaulet, R. Gladstone, H. Goelzer, N. Golledge, R. Greve, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. Kyeore Han, T. R. Hillebrand, M. J. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, N. C. Jourdain, A. K. Klose, P. M. Langebroek, G. R. Leguy, D. P. Lowry, P. Mathiot, M. Montoya, M. Morlighem, S. Nowicki, F. Pattyn, A. J. Payne, A. Quiquet, R. Reese, A. Robinson, L. Saraste, E. G. Simon, S. Sun, J. P. Twarog, L. D. Trusel, B. Urruty, J. Van Breedam, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wang, C. Zhao, T. Zwinger, 
    Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, 
    Earth's Future, 12, 9, e2024EF004561 (2024). 
    DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004561     
    PIK News
    • 





    

  • J. Gupta, X. Bai , D. M Liverman, J. Rockström, D. Qin, B. Stewart-Koster, J. C. Rocha, L. Jacobson, J. F. Abrams, L. S. Andersen, D. I. Armstrong McKay, G. Bala, S. E. Bunn, D. Ciobanu, F. DeClerck, K. L. Ebi, L. Gifford, C. Gordon, S. Hasan, N. Kanie, T. M. Lenton, S. Loriani, A. Mohamed, N. Nakicenovic, D. Obura, D. Ospina, K. Prodani, C. Rammelt, B. Sakschewski, J. Scholtens, T. Tharammal, D. van Vuuren, P. H. Verburg, R. Winkelmann, C. Zimm, E. Bennett, A. Bjørn, S. Bringezu, W. J. Broadgate, H. Bulkeley, B. Crona, P. A. Green, H. Hoff, L. Huang, M. Hurlbert, C. Y. A. Inoue, Ş. Kılkış, S. J. Lade, J. Liu, I. Nadeem, C. Ndehedehe, C. Okereke, I. M. Otto, S. Pedde, L. Pereira, L. Schulte-Uebbing, J. D. Tàbara, W. de Vries, G. Whiteman, C. Xiao, X. Xu, N. Zafra-Calvo, X. Zhang, P. Fezzigna, G. Gentile,
    A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations, 
    The Lancet Planetary Health, 8, 10, e813-e873 (2024).     
    DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00042-1
    • 






a) T. Albrecht, V. Klemann, M. Bagge, 
PISM-VILMA glacial cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coupled to the solid Earth and global sea level [dataset] (2024).
DOI: 10.1594/PANGAEA.972528.

b) T. Albrecht,
PISM version as used in Albrecht et al. (TC, 2024) publication. [software].
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.12730724.





    

  • N. Wunderling, A. von der Heydt, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C.H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R.M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J.T. Bruun, C.M. Chiessi, H.K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J.F. Donges, S.K.J. Falkena, A.K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N.J. Steinert, M. Willeit,
    Climate tipping points and interactions: A review, 
    Earth System Dynamics 15, 41–74 (2024), 
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024.
    • 











2023


    

  • H. Seroussi, V. Verjans, S. Nowicki, A. J. Payne, H. Goelzer, W. H. Lipscomb, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Agosta, T. Albrecht, X. Asay-Davis, A. Barthel, R. Calov, R. Cullather, C. Dumas, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, R. Gladstone, N. R. Golledge, J. M. Gregory, R. Greve, T. Hatterman, M. J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, P. Huybrechts, N. C. Jourdain, T. Kleiner, E. Larour, G. R. Leguy, D. P. Lowry, C. M. Little, M. Morlighem, F. Pattyn, T. Pelle, S. F. Price, A. Quiquet, R. Reese, N.-J. Schlegel, A. Shepherd, E. Simon, R. S. Smith, F. Straneo, S. Sun, L. D. Trusel, J. Van Breedam, P. Van Katwyk, R.S. W. van de Wal, R. Winkelmann, C. Zhao, T. Zhang, and T. Zwinger, 
    Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty, 
    The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217 (2023), 
    DOI:10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023.
    • 












a) N. Bauer, D. P. Keller, J. Garbe, K. Karstens, F. Piontek, W. von Bloh, W. Thiery, M. Zeitz, M. Mengel, J. Strefler, K. Thonicke, R. Winkelmann,  
Corrigendum: Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time (2023 Environ. Res. Lett.18 054015), 
Environmental Research Letters, 
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace270.





    

  • F. Sylvester, F. G. Weichert, V. L. Lozano, K. J. Groh, M. Bálint, L. Baumann, C. Bässler, W. Brack, B. Brandl, J. Curtius, P. Dierkes, P. Döll, I. Ebersberger, S. Fragkostefanakis, E. J. N. Helfrich, T. Hickler, S. Johann, J. Jourdan, S. Klimpel, H. Kminek, F. Liquin, D. Möllendorf, T. Mueller, J. Oehlmann, R. Ottermanns, S. U. Pauls, M. Piepenbring, J. Pfefferle, G. J. Schenk, J. F. Scheepens, M. Scheringer, S. Schiwy, A. Schlottmann, F. Schneider, L. M. Schulte, M. Schulze-Sylvester, E. Stelzer, F. Strobl, A. Sundermann, K. Tockner, T. Tröger, A. Vilcinskas, C. Völker, R. Winkelmann, H.Hollert, 
    Better integration of chemical pollution research will further our understanding of biodiversity loss [Comment], 
    Nature Ecology & Evolution (2024), 
    DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02117-6.
    • 





                    

                

            
                

                    

                        

                            
                        

                    


                    

                        
In review and discussion


    

  • D. Nian, M. Willeit, N. Wunderling,  A. Ganopolski, J. Rockström, 
    AMOC collapse leading to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming, 
    in review (2025).
    • 



    

  • A. Gambhir, M. Albert, S. Doe, J.F. Donges, N. Farajalla, L. Giatti, H. Gundimeda, S. Hendel-Blackford, D. Hoyer, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Hussein, D. Jacome-Polit, L. Kemp, D. Korowicz, Z. Kovacic, J. Kwakkel, L.Laybourn-Langton, R. Lempert, A. Mahamoud, T. Oliver, I. Pavkova, J. Ponnoly, V. Satgar, M. Shipman, J. Sillmann, N. Silver, S. Stevenson, R. Richardson,
    A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis,
    in review (2025)
    • 



    

  • N. Wunderling, B. Sakschewski, J. Rockström, B. M. Flores, M. Hirota, A. Staal, 
    Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways, 
    in review (2025).
    • 



    

  • A. E. Högner, G. Di Capua, J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, G. Feulner, N. Wunderling, 
    Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, 
    in review (2025),
    arxiv.org/abs/2501.14374.
    • 



    

  • M. Bechthold, W. Barfuss, A. Butz, J. Breier, S.M. Constantino, J. Heitzig, L. Schwarz, S.N. Vardag, J.F. Donges,
    Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model,
    EGUSphere unter DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924 (2024).
    • 



    

  • B. Grudde,
    The human climate: towards an Earth system-based understanding of human climate adaptation,
    in review (2024).
    • 



    

  • W.S. Oh, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S. Levin, D. Rubenstein,
    Independent or interdependent? Migration timing dynamics and their association with external stressors,
    in review (2024).
    • 



    

  • W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, M. Bethge, 
    Ecologically-mediated collective action in commons with tipping elements, 
    in review (2024), 
    preprint OSF, DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/7pcnm.
    • 



    

  • R. Winkelmann, J. Garbe, J. Donges, T. Albrecht,
    Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under Global Warming,
    in review (2024).
    • 



    

  • J. Rosser, R. Winkelmann, N. Wunderling, 
    Cryosphere tipping elements decisive for tipping risks and cascading effects in the Earth system,
    in review (2024),
    preprint Research Square, DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3787862/v1.
    • 



    

  • S. Loriani, A. Bartsch, E. Calamita, J. F. Donges, S. Hebden, M. Hirota, A. Landolfi, T. Nagler, B. Sakschewski, A. Staal, J. Verbesselt, R. Winkelmann, R. Wood, N. Wunderling,
    Monitoring the multiple stages of climate tipping systems from space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables meet the needs?    ,
    in review (2024).
    • 



    

  • ..., J.F. Donges, et al.,
    Resilience metrics need to better incorporate agency and diversity,
    in review (2023).
    • 



    

  • L. Nicola, R. Reese, M. Kreuzer, T. Albrecht and R. Winkelmann, 
    Oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines – Impact of critical access depths on sub-shelf melt, 
    in review (2023), 
    DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583.
    • 



    

  • M. Kreuzer, T. Albrecht, L. Nicola, R. Reese and R. Winkelmann, 
    Oceanic gateways in Antarctica – Impact of relative sea-level change on sub-shelf melt, 
    in review (2023), 
    DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737.
    • 



    

  • S. Loriani, Y. Aksenov, D. Armstrong McKay, G. Bala, A. Born, C.M. Chiessi, H. Dijkstra, J.F. Donges, S. Drijfhout, M.H. England, A.V. Fedorov, L. Jackson, K. Kornhuber, G. Messori, F. Pausata, S. Rynders, J.-B. Salée, B. Sinha, S. Sherwood, D. Swingedouw, T. Tharammal,
    Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations,
    EGUsphere [preprint], Earth System Dynamics, in review (2023),
    DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589.
    • 



    

  • N. Wunderling, S. Perri, J. Rockström, M. Oppenheimer, A. Porporato, J.F. Donges, S.A. Levin, W. Barfuss, 
    Concerted efforts of politics, society and science mitigate climate tipping risks in a coupled human-Earth system model, 
    in review (2023).
    • 



    

  • E.K. Smith*, N. Kitzmann*, M. Milkoreit*, R. Winkelmann*, A.-S. Crépin, C. Eder, N. Harring, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, T.M. Lenton, F. Mauelshagen, K. Minor, I.M. Otto, A. Rezai, J. Scheffran, I. Stadelmann-Steffen, R. van der Ploeg, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges*,
    Criticality and critical agency in societal tipping processes towards sustainability,
    subm. (2023),
    * shared lead-authorship
    • 



    

  • C. Mauritzen, S. Cornell, S. Eker, C. Smith, B. Callegari, D. Collste, J.F. Donges, P.M. Forster, D. Gerten, A. Gjermundsen, B. Kopainsky, C. Li, S. Mashhadi, W. Schoenberg, J. Sillmann, L. Wang-Erlandsson, 
    Perspective: A research agenda towards building renewed trust in decision making tools for climate mitigation, 
    in review.
    • 


                    

                

            
        

        

        
        

    
          

    


    
    
  


  

  



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