Hochwasserrisiko im mittleren Neckarraum -
Charakterisierung unter Berücksichtigung regionaler Klimaszenarien
sowie dessen Wahrnehmung durch befragte Anwohner
M. Wolff (Dezember 2003)
The aim of this diploma thesis is twofold: Firstly to show for a given subcatchment
how the risk “flood” could possibly alter under climate change. Secondly it will be
analysed how potentially affected persons individually perceive
this change of risk. To accomplish this aim the thesis is based on an
interdisciplinary approach which combines methods of the natural- and
social sciences. The methods of the natural sciences are mainly based
on hydrological techniques and the application of climate change
szenarios while the methods of the social sciences deal with
perception- and speculation horizons of individual persons. Within this
context different definitions of the term “risk” will be discussed.
Further it will be pointed out that the term risk can be understood as
a result of different, respectively process related, correlations.
The first part includes calculations on the possible
future development of floodrisk in a subcatchment of the river Neckar
in southwest Germany. These analyses will be based on applications of
the hydrological model HBV-D and the integration of statistically
downscaled and therefore regionalized climate change scenarios.
The second part deals with the perceptions of selected
stakeholders, who were confronted with the results from the
hydrological studies. These analyses will primarily be based on
statsitical evaluations of interviews in the surrounding area of the
city of Pforzheim, involving housholds, decision-makers and also pupils
from two local grammar schools.
