CROSSDRO

Drought causes multi- and cross-sectoral impacts both from environmental and socio-economic points of view across Europe. There are complex hydrological and environmental connections among drought types making it very difficult to assess and quantify impacts. Considering this challenge, CROSSDRO addresses i) the direct impact of droughts on snow cover, forest growth and health, water resources and irrigated and rain fed crops, including the connection between physical and socioeconomic impacts and pathways, and; ii) assessment of the reliability of multi- and cross-impact models, but also uncertainty issues and projected scenarios for drought impacts under climate change. The main goal of the project is to broaden the knowledge base that helps guiding societies in their transition to sustainability by means of improving the scientific assessment of the cross-sectoral impacts of drought- one of the main climate change impact-derived risks. CROSSDRO will improve knowledge of the magnitude and patterns of risk and opportunities of climate change across regions and multiple sectors, considering a multi- and cross-sectoral evaluation of drought impacts in regions characterised by very different environmental and socioeconomic conditions. At the same time CROSSDRO will increase the quality, credibility and usability of climate impact models by means of the integration of these models with climate projections. CROSSDRO will analyse basins located in different environmental and socioeconomic conditions, being representative of the diversity of hydrological and socio-economic conditions that can be found at the European level. Moreover, CROSSDRO will assess impacts at the continental level focusing on the vegetation and water sectors.

Statistical approaches and the process-based ecohydrological model SWIM will be combined by PIK to assess impacts of changes in the future frequency and severity of drought events from a multi- and cross-sectoral perspective. Climate scenarios, e.g. the suite of downscaled, bias-corrected global climate scenarios of the ISIMIP project or respective follow-up products will force these models. The drought risk (and severity) projections will enable us to establish probability-ranked impact scenarios considering a wide variety of affected sectors.