PEP1p5

In this project, we will produce new mitigation pathways towards 1.5oC that explicitly take near term policy developments and short term entry points to strengthen mitigation action into account. The development of 1.5° scenarios will be tailored to assessing the contingencies of 2 key pathway characteristics such as the pace of decarbonization in regions and sectors and the amount of CDR on a range of assumptions about near term policy developments. These will be underpinned by a better understanding of short-term entry points and (fossil) investment dynamics across country types taking into account political economy considerations. The overall goal of this assessment is to identify near term climate policy requirements of the 1.5oC goal, in particular concerning near term emissions reductions, phase out of coal, upscaling of low carbon energy, and developing CDR capabilities. To this end, the project will also analyze the importance of reduced energy and land demand, the availability of deep abatement options in critical sectors such as transport and agriculture, and the sustainability of CDR technology portfolios for the implementation of 1.5°C pathways, all key factors for the attainability of the 1.5oC target. The assessment of contingencies and requirements of 1.5oC in this project will be critical for informing the IPCC special report.

Input to SR1.5, and stakeholder interaction after publication

Modeling of scenarios with REMIND-MAgPIE