ImpactEE

Weather extremes are expected to intensify under future warming. In a globalized world, Europe’s economy will be impacted directly by recurring regional extreme weather events such as the 2013 flooding but also indirectly through its economic connectedness with the rest of the world. Here we investigate the impacts of intensified weather extremes on Europe’s economy under different climatic and socio-economic futures and develop and assess possible adaptation strategies at the company, the national and the EU level. To this end, we use a numerical model of economic loss propagation along supply networks which we calibrate by hindcasting recent weather extremes. We project the impact of heatwaves, floods and storms as well as possible developments of Europe’s economy and trade relations until 2050. We thereby address the combined impact of two major global challenges of the 21st century, climate change and economic connectedness, and provide solution strategies with strong global implications.