EPICC-RD2

The overarching goal of this project is to strengthen resilience against disruptive whether phenomena and climate change at national, regional and local level in three partner countries: India, Peru and Tanzania. This project is an opportunity for the partner countries to reduce the gap between climate research and its application in policy, business and societal decisions, particularly regarding agriculture, hydrology and water resources, and migration issues. Consequently, the project aims to identify on a collaborative basis how sound climate models and related tools can be tailored to national needs. For instance, how can climate scenarios and seasonal prediction models be calibrated and put in to use for agricultural management? Or how can migration-climate hotspot maps support strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate stressors? Capacities to develop, use and disseminate the project results will mature through implementation and notably remain in partner countries for research, education and policy purposes beyond the three-year scope of the EPICC (2018-2020). EPICC in one sentence: Co-production of user-oriented climate services to better adapt to climate change. The project encompasses five modules to be developed according to preferences and top priorities of partner countries. In this sense, EPICC is adaptive to needs and capacities of local partners. The EPICC goals are: • Providing seasonal forecasts • Assessing current and future climate impacts including migration patterns • Establishing (or enhancing) research cooperation • Supporting local capacities through knowledge transfer activities These goals will be reached by implementing the following modules: 1. Capacity building and knowledge transfer, as a cross-cutting issue 2. Climate 3. Hydrology and water resources 4. Agriculture 5. Migration

During the duration of the project, the aim is to establish or strengthen structures in the partner countries, which link science and local decision makers or NGOs and which increase the awareness about the practical benefits of science, for example for the development of a stronger voice in climate negotiations. This way incentives for the continuation of established activities are created. The foundation for such a continuation is the training of young scientists as well as the collaboration with guest-scientists from the partner countries. These scientists are to be included in the dissemination of scientific results among stakeholders in the partner countries and in cooperation with local research institutes. The methods and routines for the provision of climate services, which are developed in this project, have versatile applications due to the diversity of the partner countries in regard of geography, socio-economics and scientific capacities.

PIK provides a wide range of climate service information on different time scales within this project. An annual forecast of the start and end of the monsoon season is published and disseminated among Indian stakeholders and scientists by the way of workshops and seminars. A long-term (more than one year in advance) El Niño prediction is shared with the Peruvian authorities. Seasonal predictions of crop yields and river runoff are developed and tested in collaboration with partners in the partner countries. Regional information of projected climate change and its impact on hydrology and crop yields in the partner countries are developed. Hotspot maps show linkages between migration dynamics and climate change and extremes. The potential for regional conflicts related to climate change is explored in the partner countries. Policy advice and recommendations for action for identified stakeholders in the partner countries are formulated. The developed cross-sectorial information on climate change is either contributed to existing web-platforms in the partner countries or visualized on a PIK-developed web-platform in the style of klimafolgenonline