EXTRA

The bioclimatic grain yield potential of Russia is 20-30% lower than in the bulk of the EU countries, but it is 2-3 times higher in terms of untapped capacity. On average, actual yields are only about half of those in Western Europe. Yet, Russia is an important producer/exporter of agricultural commodities, playing a major role in the world grain market. In Russia, arable crop production is very vulnerable to seasonal droughts and heat waves. This dependence on weather conditions makes the country’s agricultural output volatile (Liefert, 2002; OECD, 2013). As the incidence of heat waves along the grain belt of Russia is projected to increase with global warming (IPCC, 2013), climate change is anticipated to increase the vulnerability of Russian agriculture and its output volatility. The project seeks to provide a quantitative analysis of the influence of seasonal droughts and heat waves on Russia’s cereal production under current and future climatic conditions, and explore opportunities for adaptation of Russian agriculture to climate change and risks of extreme events. The study area includes the Volga and Don River basins. Crops considered for the analysis are spring wheat, winter wheat and maize. In Russia, water availability directly limits crop yields, indirectly sets constraints to the availability of soil nutrients, and is obviously of relevance in the context of adaptation. With this in mind, the project will further assess the impacts of extreme events and climate change on availability of water resources. Specific tasks are: (a) an analysis of the occurrence of droughts and heat waves under current and future climatic conditions; (b) an evaluation of the impact of extreme events on cereal production under current and future conditions using statistical and process-based modelling tools; (c) an analysis of the implications of extreme events and climate change on economic agents’ behaviour and performance at the micro level and on the country food supply.

- Assessment of water resources availability and crop productivity with SWIM - Assessment of crop productivity and production risks by statistical models - evaluating the impact of climate change and extreme events on food supply at the regional level