World bank background

The purpose of this background paper is to understand how climate change (CC) impacts on agricultural production could influence poverty, and potentially also undernourishment, in the future. In order to do so, the study will analyze the role of key factors such as agricultural production costs, agricultural production quantities, scarcity of water and scarcity of land. Since poverty is a local phenomenon rather than a national or global problem, it is important to analyze the poverty impacts at a subnational scale. For this background model based vulnerability indicators, derived from the agroeconomic land- and water use model MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment), will be combined with data on population density and poverty on a fine spatial resolution. This novel combining of model results and data will enable the development of an indicator that illustrates the subnational severity of the impact of climate change in terms of the indicators, such as agricultural production, costs and natural resources, and in terms of already vulnerable people impacted.