World Bank

The objective of the Economic and Sector Work (ESW) is to get a science-based unde1rstanding of the nature and magnitude of development impacts, by examining physical and biophysical climate change impacts at the regional scale. The focus of this work is to provide for each region (MNA, ECA and LAC) an analysis of climate risks at present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C scenarios through the examination of stressors that are widely held to represent critical vulnerabilities, at scale and with sufficient spatial resolution.

A central part of the work will be to explore the application of a scientific and evidence-based approach in the development of case studies which reflect an emphasis on different climate vulnerabilities (or stressors) at scale and with sufficient spatial resolution to form the basis for convening a dialogue on transformational development pathways. For this, three region specific case-studies will be integrated into a global inter-sectoral assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming.

Building on the methodology used in the Phase II report Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience and through a series of questions related to timing, scale, social vulnerability and previously identified tipping point considerations, the consultant firm will undertake analysis that will seek to characterize the nature and magnitude of impacts. The consulting firm would be expected to explore the application of a scientific and evidence-based approach in the development of case studie:s that reflect an emphasis on different climate vulnerabilities at scale and with sufficient spatial resolution. The analysis should also include a consideration of uncettainties, and an indication of the significance and likelihood of their occurrence.