EXPACT

The political dialogue on climate stabilization targets demands robust calculations of climate change impacts at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). The new research group will meet this demand by developing an efficient, probabilistic Emulator of climate eXtremes and their imPACTs (EXPACT}, providing unprecedented, spatially correlated projections of the repercussions of different GMT changes. Focusing on the agricultural sector, the potential for simultaneous crop yield losses, and the risk of non-linear responses propagating throughout the world economic system will be quantified. The design of the emulator will in particular allow accounting for different adaptation strategies.