ERMITAGE - RD1

ERMITAGE proposes to advance the integration of models representing the global climate system, the economy and climate change mitigation strategies, and models representing agriculture, hydrology and land use. We propose to use the resultant integrated modelling systems to produce internally consistent future world scenarios. These scenarios will highlight how policies on land use, climate change mitigation and water use might be harmonised towards common sustainability goals. We will also illustrate how a lack of such policy integration might lead to ineffective or undesirable outcomes. Our analysis will be global, but there will also be an EU focus within this global context. Our work will include studies of the robustness of our conclusions to the values of key uncertain parameters that are used in our modelling exercises. The use of the energy/economic, agricultural, land surface, and climate models will allow study of the relationship between four key requirements of global sustainability: secure supplies of food, energy and water, and preservation of natural ecosystems.

The expected impact of this research will be: - Improved linkage and integration between global macroeconomic models, energy-technology models, climate change models, land surface and water models, and representations of climate impacts. These are critical to understanding overarching goals of sustainability. - The possibility of extending the integration and connectivity approach to other models currently available or in development. - An improved capacity of policy makers to define options for sustainable policy interventions by improved coherence of impact and feedback assessments, robustness of decisions at regional to global scale, and a coherent system for downscaling assessments to local scale.

Land use and climate Economy and land use M. Leimbach, H. Lotze-Campen, A. Popp, D. Gerten