STACEE

Shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns can strongly alter the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events and can thus have severe humanitarian impacts. Climate change over the last century has already altered some large scale circulation patterns but the uncertainties are large. This research aims to reduce uncertainties by providing fundamental insights in the general circulation, its stability and its extremes. The focus of the proposed research will be towards extra-tropical planetary waves in association with recent extreme heat waves. The goal is to quantify both atmosphere-dynamical and land-atmosphere feedbacks, and the effects these can have on extreme weather events. We will apply novel data-analysis techniques to existing atmospheric datasets as well as specifically designed numerical experiments using a hierarchy of atmosphere models. Both state-of-the-art atmosphere general circulation models and a recently, at PIK, developed statistical-dynamical atmosphere model, Aeolus, will be used.