AQUASIA

In the face of climate change, both enhanced early warning and long-term water availability projections are crucial to increase the resilience of the local societies and improve disaster risk reduction. The Central Asian region is lacking of scientific studies related to climate impact assessment on water resources availability. In addition, different weather forecast products exist, but their accuracy in predicting seasonal weather (their prediction skill) is often limited and differs from region to region. Coupled hydrological forecasts are needed to strengthen water management and prepare for droughts and floods. AQUASIA seeks to provide a climate impact assessment of water availability until end of the century and improve the technical capabilities of a trans-boundary early warning system for flood and drought in the Central Asian region. We aim to get better understanding of possible climate impacts in the long-term perspective and strengthen the accuracy and effectiveness of short-term forecast, better equipping the region to respond to potential flood and drought disasters. The work will be done in communication with the local experts in order to streamline the products to the demand of the end users. The project will focus on two main objectives: conducting long-term simulations of river discharge under various climate change scenarios and adapting the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) for seasonal forecasting of water availability and extremes in Central Asia. This will involve applying different climate change scenarios and enhancing the representation of different processes (e.g., snow processes) in hydrological modeling for mountainous regions. By addressing these critical aspects, we aim to get better understanding of possible climate impacts in the long-term perspective and strengthen the accuracy and effectiveness of short-term forecast, better equipping the region to respond to potential flood and drought disasters. The work will be done in communication with the local experts in order to streamline the products to the demand of the end users.

The main project goals are to: (1) Systematically advance understanding of water availability under climate change and streamflow forecasting in Central Asia; (2) Provide long-term streamflow simulation and testing of a seasonal forecast; (3) Disseminate the results and support the national hydrometeorological services.