Southern Tanzania: Delayed Monsoon Rainfall Threatens Smallholder Farmers
12/22/2020 - Traditionally, seasonal rainfalls in Southern Tanzania begin in the second or third week of November. But this year, the start of the monsoon (or Msimu in the Swahili language) season was delayed to December 10th, as PIK researcher Elena Surovyatkina correctly predicted in October. This has potentially serious consequences for the country, in which the agricultural sector accounts for roughly a third of its Gross Domestic Product.
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Galina Churkina awarded with "Aquila Capital Transformation Award"
12/17/2020 - For her research on replacing cement and steel in urban construction by wood, PIK guest researcher Galina Churkina has been awarded with the first “Aquila Capital Transformation Award”. A high-profile jury chose Churkina's paper “Buildings as a global carbon sink” from a large number of submissions from PhD graduates at renowned universities and research institutions worldwide. The “Aquila Capital Transformation Award” aims to support research for mitigating climate change and is endowed with EUR 20,000. The award will be announced on an annual basis and aims to provide a contribution to a more sustainable society in the context of energy transformation and decarbonisation in Europe.
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Levke Caesar awarded with Publication Prize by the Leibniz-Kolleg Potsdam
12/15/2020 – This year's Publication Prize awarded by the Leibniz-Kolleg to young scientists goes to PIK-affiliated researcher Levke Caesar. A former student at the University of Potsdam, the award recognizes her important contributions in the field of climate physics – particularly her research into the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its impact on the Earth System.
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All new trucks sold must be fossil free by 2040, agree truck makers and climate researchers
12/15/2020 - In an unprecedented science-backed statement, Europe’s truck manufacturers have concluded that by 2040 all new trucks sold need to be fossil free in order to reach carbon-neutrality by 2050. It will be possible to meet this target provided the right charging/refuelling infrastructure is built and a coherent policy framework is put into place, including comprehensive CO2 pricing to drive the transition. To develop their roadmap to carbon-neutrality by 2050 at the latest, the CEOs of Europe’s commercial vehicle manufacturers, under the umbrella of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), have joined forces with leading scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
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Standing up for a Sustainable World – new book co-edited by Johan Rockström explores modes of resistance against systemic natural destruction
12/11/2020 - The world's natural capital – biodiversity, air, water, soil, and climate – is under attack. Unfettered economic growth and individual business interests have not led to a society benefitting all but are threatening to inflict irreversible damages to our planet. Yet there are ways forward to a better future. In a new book, edited by Claude Henry (Professor of Sustainable Development at Sciences Po), Johan Rockström (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and Nicholas Stern (Professor of Economics and Government and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute at London School of Economics) over 60 thinkers from various disciplines present new approaches to “raise living standards and fight poverty across the world” while “creating a much safer and more attractive environment.”
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Farmers in focus: Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on crops
12/11/2020 - Agriculture is a key socio-economic sector that both influences the climate and is exposed to climate impacts. To reach targets on food security, protection of biodiversity and the natural environment as well as on climate mitigation for the global common land, it is crucial to know how and where climate change and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 affect crops. Decision makers and farmers need to quantify the risks to their sector and evaluate sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies. An international team of agro-climatic experts, including PIK researcher Christoph Müller, has reviewed existing crop models that are used for these climate change risk assessments: While the size of CO2 fertilization effects is still uncertain to some extent, their results, published in Nature Food today, suggest that presenting crop modelling results without accounting elevated CO2 simulations are obsolete and don't offer added value to decision makers.
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PIK STATEMENT on the EU climate target and on the Paris Agreement's 5th anniversary
12/11/2020 - Today, the European Council adopted the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. On 12 December, the historic Paris climate agreement has its 5th anniversary of being adopted by representatives of more than 196 countries plus the EU at the UN climate summit COP21.
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CO2 pricing and financial transfers: small changes can have a huge effect on climate equity
12/09/2020 - Global greenhouse-gas emission reductions could be achieved in a fair and thrifty way by surprisingly small variations of well-known policies. This is shown by a team of economists in a quantitative study now published in Nature. Differentiated CO2 prices in different countries combined with moderate financial transfers from advanced to developing countries would do the job. These changes would be most efficient in achieving fair burden sharing and at the same time keep overall costs in check, the researchers find. This could solve the epic trilemma to unite cost-efficiency, national sovereignty and fair effort-sharing.
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Expert assessment on a 55% target 2030: The path of least resistance will miss the EU climate target
12/09/2020 - An EU decision this week to ramp up the climate target for 2030 will be about more than the mere willingness to make greater political efforts towards climate neutrality in 2050. The target also shapes German climate policy. Experts from the Kopernikus energy transition project Ariadne, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, scrutinized the EU Commission's most important scenarios for more ambitious measures. Should the EU continue to rely on a varied mix of instruments lacking a clear concept for their interactions, it runs the risk of failing to meet its new goals, their research shows.
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Low food prices, high energy use: The pros and cons of emerging technology in our food system
12/08/2020 - An international team of scientists, including PIK researchers, has identified the potential impacts emerging from food system technologies in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals. In a new study, that has been published in Lancet Planetary Health, they find that while new technologies and innovation can help fix some issues with the food system, they also have far-reaching impacts. These can cause disruption and unintended consequences, some beneficial and some not, for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Food system innovation will be key to succeed, but new technologies need to be guided by science-based targets to avoid trade-offs and rebound effects.
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New study: CO2 price of 100 euros could find acceptance - if the revenue is refunded
12/07/2020 - In January a CO2 price for the traffic and heating sector will be introduced in Germany for the first time. Initially it will amount to 25 euros per ton of CO2, but will rise to 55 euros by 2025. But in order to meet climate targets by 2030 significantly higher prices are necessary.
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FABLE Report 2020: Pathways to sustainable land-use and food systems
The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Consortium has presented an updated plan on how countries can meet mid-century objectives on food security, healthy diets, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, forest conservation, and freshwater use. In part coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), FABLE's mission is to mobilize top knowledge institutions from 20 countries to support the development of decision-support tools and long-term pathways towards sustainable food and land-use systems.
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The climate crisis makes people ill - four proposals towards a healthy future
12/03/2020 - Today the 2020 Lancet Countdown, the new report on the relationship between health and climate change, has been released. It shows that the health risks posed by a changing climate are increasing worldwide, including Germany - and that countermeasures are possible.
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Earth4All: New initiative on transformational economics
11/23/2020 - As a major new international collaboration, Earth4All will bring together leading researchers and policymakers, led by teams of the Club of Rome, the Norwegian Business School and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Together, they will explore transformational political and economic solutions for the 21st century to catalyze transformation along five pathways: energy, food, inequality, poverty and population (including health and education).
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Professorship at the University of Kassel for agricultural researcher Christoph Gornott
11/20/2020 - The University of Kassel has appointed PIK researcher Christoph Gornott to a professorship for agroecosystem analysis and modelling. Financed by a federal and state programme to support young scientists, he will now be a member of the faculty "Organic Agricultural Sciences" at the Witzenhausen campus.
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”Highly Cited Scientists 2020” ranking: success for PIK researchers
11/18/2020 – The “Highly Cited Scientists” list once again features a number of PIK researchers. Twelve of them rank in the top 1% by citations for field and publication year in the 2020 Web of Science citation index, which is an indicator of scientific relevance. It is a remarkable success that the listed researchers are almost equally distributed across PIK departments and natural and social sciences. Many of them scored well in the “cross field” category of the ranking. The two Directors on the list, representing two important fields – Johan Rockström with Earth System Science and Ottmar Edenhofer with Economy –, are confirming the overarching result: high level transdisciplinary research earns international recognition.
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Starved, stuffed and squandered: New study reveals consequences of decades of global nutrition transition
11/18/2020 - Just a handful of rice and beans – a part of our world is starved. Hawaiian Pizza and ice-cream – another part of our world is stuffed, throwing away food every day. This gap is likely to worsen, while food waste will increase and pressure on the environment will go up, a new study shows. Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assessed the consequences if the current nutrition transition, from scarce starch-based diets towards processed foods and animal products, continues – the calculations combine, for the first time, estimates for under- and overweight, food composition and waste. Their findings provide a startling look ahead: By 2050, more than 4 billion people could be overweight, 1.5 billion of them obese, while 500 million people continue to be underweight.
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US Presidentials results: "Unprecedented opportunity to lock in climate stabilization"
11/08/2020 - According to media reports Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have defeated Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections. This can have substantial relevance for international climate pathways. On this issue, statements by the two scientific Directors of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, economist Ottmar Edenhofer and Earth system scientist Johan Rockström.
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"System Transformation": #RaceToZero UNFCCC pre-COP26 event
11/04/2020 - The #RaceToZero dialogues on how to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions kick off on Monday, 9th of November, organized by UNFCCC and COP26 world climate summit team. The Club of Rome and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research are joining forces to host the opening session on “Systems Transformation” - for a new resilience agenda for people, planet, prosperity. With presentations by Johan Rockström (Director of PIK) and Sandrine Dixson-Declève (Co-President of The Club of Rome) as well as a high-level panel discussion, this online event introduces all participants to ten days filled with keynotes, showcases and High-Level Champions all combined for a systemic transformation to reach the climate stabilization goals of the Paris Agreement.
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Ice loss due to warming leads to warming due to ice loss: a vicious circle
10/27/2020 - The loss of huge ice masses can contribute to the warming that is causing this loss and further risks. A new study now quantifies this feedback by exploring long-term if-then-scenarios. If the Arctic summer sea-ice were to melt completely, a scenario that is likely to become reality at least temporarily within this century with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, this could eventually add roughly 0.2°C to global warming. This is, however, not in addition to IPCC projections of future warming since these already take the relevant mechanisms into account. Still, the scientists could now separate the effects of the ice loss from other effects and quantify it. The 0.2°C are substantial, given that global mean temperature is currently about one degree higher than in pre-industrial times, and governments worldwide agreed to stop the increase well below two degrees.
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Niklas Boers awarded with EGU Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award
10/26/2020 - One of 2021’s Outstanding Early Career Scientist Awards goes to PIK researcher Niklas Boers. Awarded by the European Geosciences Union (EGU), the prize recognizes Boers’ important contributions in the fields covered by the Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences (NP) Division, which is focused on a series of nonlinear paradigms including deterministic chaos, tipping points, predictability and its limits, as well as extreme events.
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President Steinmeier: “Without people like Edenhofer, the Paris Agreement and the German climate deal would not have been possible.”
10/25/2020 - German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has acknowledged the political significance of Ottmar Edenhofer's scientific work. The economist and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change was awarded the 2020 Environmental Prize of the The German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) in Hanover on Sunday. “Without people like you, there would not have been the Paris Climate Agreement and the German climate deal," said Steinmeier addressing Edenhofer in his laudatory speech. "You're advising the Pope, the World Bank, the German government.”
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Sabine Gabrysch appointed to Advisory Council of the Federal Government
15.10.2020 - The Federal Cabinet has appointed new members to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). Six of the nine Advisory Council members were appointed for the first time, including Sabine Gabrysch from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
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"Climate has reached a global crisis point": PIK Director Joins TED Countdown
10/15/2020 - “We Can Change Climate Change” – this is the slogan of TED Countdown, a year-long initiative by scientists, artists, government officials and activists to collectively develop concrete ideas for a cleaner future. PIK Director Johan Rockström contributed with an engaging and energizing video statement.
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Biggest CO2 drop: Real-time data shows Covid-19’s massive impact on global emissions
10/14/2020 - While the ongoing Corona pandemic continues to threaten millions of lives around the world, the first half of 2020 saw an unprecedented decline in CO2 emissions – larger than during the financial crisis of 2008, the oil crisis of 1979, or even World War II. An international team of researchers has found that in the first six months of this year, 8.8 percent less carbon dioxide were emitted than in the same period in 2019 – a total decrease of 1551 million tonnes. The groundbreaking study not only offers a much more precise look at COVID-19’s impact on global energy consumption than previous analyses. It also suggests what fundamental steps could be taken to stabilize the global climate in the aftermath of the pandemic.
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Remembering Mario Molina, Nobel Prize-winning chemist and MIT Institute Professor Emeritus
10/12/2020 - It is with deepest sorrow that the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is grieving for Professor Mario Molina who died on 7 October at the age of 77.
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Small area, great effect: Peatland, the clever carbon capturer
10/09/2020 - Peatland rewetting is a greatly underestimated means to stabilize our climate, a new study shows. While the public debate often focuses on forests, global peatlands in fact store about twice as much carbon. Yet, once drained, peatlands emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, currently about double of what global air traffic emits each year. For the first time, a team led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) included peatland emissions, based on computer simulations, in quantitative projections of how global warming can be kept below 2° Celsius. They find that current mitigation pathways do not accurately consider peatlands. To reach climate stabilization targets, peatland protection and restoration must thus be increased – for instance in the current EU agricultural policy reform.
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Larger part of Amazon rainforest at risk of tipping
10/05/2020 A larger part of the Amazon rainforest than previously thought is at risk of crossing a tipping point where it could become a savanna-type ecosystem, according to a new study. The research, based on computer models and data analysis, is published by a team of scientists including Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in the journal Nature Communications. Rainforests are very sensitive to changes that affect rainfall for extended periods. If rainfall drops below a certain threshold, areas may shift into a savanna state.
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United Nations: "Protect People and Planet"
09/25/2020 - As the United Nations celebrate their 75th anniversary with a high-level week of the 75th General Assembly, they opened with a full day high-level meeting held under the banner “The Future We Want, the UN We Need” on 21 September. Global governance is a key topic and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) - and namely its Director Johan Rockström - has been involved on several levels. He particularly participates via video in a Heads of State event "Protect People and Planet" on 28 September.
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Ottmar Edenhofer among Germany's most influential economists
09/24/2020 - In the ranking of Germany’s most influential economists published by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Ottmar Edenhofer is once again among the 'Top Ten' – and once more, he is the only climate economist among Germany's top tier economic researchers. The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) scored particularly highly because of his scientific citations with which other researchers in the scientific community refer to his work. Ernst Fehr from the University of Zurich landed at the top of the ranking followed by Clemens Fuest from the ifo Munich and Marcel Fratzscher from the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, on second and third place, respectively.
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