In his dissertation“The economic costs of climate change: accounting for the changing variability and extremes of temperature and precipitation” Maximilian Kotz examined past and future changes in the distribution of temperature and precipitation, which vary constantly as a result of climate change. Unlike previous studies, he included not only the mean values, but also the variances and margins of the climate data. Using the CMIP-6 climate model ensemble, he found that current climate models may underestimate the intensification of precipitation extremes. He also analysed the economic consequences of climate change in over 1,500 regions of the world.
He developed methods for precisely calculating the effects and found that the consequences of climate change have a significant impact on economic growth and will become apparent in the coming decades. The dissertation shows that even with a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions from now until 2050, the global economy would have to expect a 19 percent drop in income. In comparison, limiting global warming to two degrees would entail around six times lower costs. The jury of the Leibniz Association highlighted that Kotz's work demonstrates significant social relevance, particularly by showing that the regions most affected by climate change will be in the Global South—areas that have contributed the least to global emissions historically.
Maximilian Kotz, who studied theoretical physics and geosciences at the University of Cambridge, completed his doctorate at PIK and is currently a Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and a guest researcher at PIK. The Leibniz PhD Prize, worth 5,000 €, is awarded annually to recognize outstanding doctoral research from Leibniz Institutes in the categories "Humanities and Social Sciences" and "Natural and Technical Sciences." Alongside Maximilian Kotz, Sara Kopf from the Leibniz Institute for Catalysis was also awarded in the category Natural and Technical Sciences
Articles:
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Carr, M. Kotz, P. Pichler, H. Weisz, C. Belmin, L. Wenz. Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally. Wenz. Nature Climate Change. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8
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Kotz, A. Levermann, L. Wenz. The economic commitment of climate change. Nature. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07219-0
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Kotz, Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel. Global warming and heat extremes to exacerbate inflationary pressures. Nature Communications Earth & Environment. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01173-x
Weblink to the Leibniz Dissertation Award:
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