The scientists discussed the implications of short-term policies for the 2° limit, stressing that it needs credible policies to avoid a further lock-in into carbon intensive infrastructure that decreases the long-term potential for mitigation. Gunnar Luderer and Carl-Friedrich Schleußner gave presentations on this. Currently, societies are not on track to stay below the 2° guardrail, which was also shown by an analysis of the ambition level of the so called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) so far submitted by only a minority of countries to reach an agreement at COP21. Most of them fall short of a pathway consistent with a cost-effective achievement of the 2° limit, Louise Jefferey and Christoph Bertram showed.
Complementing more theoretical approaches to climate negotiations, presented by Detlef Sprinz and Jobst Heitzig, and a talk on policy Assessments as a means to induce dynamism by Michael Pahle, the discussion revolved on what´s at stake in Paris. Katja Frieler highlighted some of these. Among the possible impacts of climate change is an increase in temperature extremes, potentially also a long-term increase in crop prices by 2050 – to name just some examples of current PIK research discussed at the open forum.
