New study identifies causal links behind the increase in hot and dry extremes in Central Europe
12/23/2024 - Hot extreme weather events in Central Europe are driven primarily by anomalous atmospheric patterns and soil water deficiency, a new study led by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK shows. In contrast, dry extremes are mainly caused by atmospheric anomalies and soil moisture memory, and only marginally by temperature changes.
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IPBES Nexus Report: Integrated solutions to address interconnected global crises
12/17/2024 - Current efforts to tackle biodiversity loss, climate change, water scarcity, and challenges in food security and health are often disconnected and fail to account for the complexity of these interconnected crises, a landmark new report finds. The Nexus Assessment, published by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), calls for more integrated solutions. It highlights how ongoing biodiversity decline—primarily driven by human activity and climate change—directly affects food security, water quality and availability, health, resilience to climate impacts, and nearly all other contributions that nature makes to human well-being. It’s the first comprehensive global report to explore the interlinkages of these crises.
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Climate hazards could reduce corporate earnings by up to 7 percent annually by 2035
12/11/2024 - Businesses that fail to adapt to climate risks like extreme heat could lose up to 7 percent of annual earnings by 2035, an impact comparable to nearly half of the economic losses caused by COVID-19. This is shown in a new report by the World Economic Forum, with contribution by PIK director Johan Rockström. The report aims to build a bridge between the latest scientific findings on the Earth system and their consequences for the economy.
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Energy-intensive industry: importing selected primary products and securing value creation and jobs
12/10/2024 - The competitiveness of the chemical and steel industry in Germany could be strengthened in the long term through the partial import of inexpensive green primary products and a focus on high added value in industrial processing. This is shown in a new report by scientists from the Kopernikus project Ariadne, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Ariadne researchers analyze how the German energy-intensive primary industry can become climate-neutral and remain competitive at the same time.
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The time has come: PIK’s strategic expansion will take place at the turn of the year
21/09/2024 – Bundling climate expertise from the natural sciences to policy advice: at the beginning of 2025, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) will implement its long-planned strategic expansion through additional institutional funding. As announced in October 2023, the Berlin-based climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) will be integrated into PIK. In addition, expertise in previously under-researched and future-oriented topics will be specifically strengthened. The Joint Science Conference of the German federal and state governments has now formally approved the necessary increase in long-term basic state funding.
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PIK scientist Annika Stechemesser receives the Potsdam Young Scientist Prize
12/02/2024 – The Potsdam Young Scientist Prize has been awarded this year to Annika Stechemesser for her outstanding research in the field of climate physics. In her interdisciplinary dissertation, awarded summa cum laude, she explored the impacts of climate change on human behaviour and its subsequent effects on the economy, communication, social cohesion, and mobility. Her work provides important insights into adaptation to climate change and the social and economic inequalities exacerbated by global warming.
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Transforming land management within planetary boundaries key to addressing global land use crisis
2.12.2024 - Land degradation undermines biodiversity, accelerates climate impacts, and endangers agriculture, food security, and livelihoods all over the world. These are the findings of a new scientific report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in collaboration with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), released on the occasion of UNCCD COP16 in Riyadh. Using the planetary boundaries framework, the report examines the latest scientific research on global land degradation, shedding light on the risks and opportunities of various land-use decisions.
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Maximilian Kotz receives Leibniz Dissertation award for “The economic costs of climate change”
11/28/2024 – The 2024 Leibniz Dissertation Award has been granted to Maximilian Kotz for his outstanding research on the economic costs of climate change, completed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He examines the economic impact of human-made climate change, specifically rising temperatures, increased variability, and more frequent extreme weather events like heavy rainfall. He received the award in the Natural and Technical Sciences category at the annual Leibniz Association meeting.
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Scientific Climate Council of the State of Brandenburg: ‘Climate protection is important for Brandenburg's future viability’
11/ 25/2024 - The scientific Climate Council of the State of Brandenburg (WKB), chaired by Hermann Lotze-Campen from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), has started its first working session in Potsdam. The WKB will make an important contribution to the implementation of the Brandenburg Climate Plan. The climate plan, which was adopted in March 2024, contains 103 measures and sets out a path for the state of Brandenburg to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. The climate plan was developed in a broad-based participation process involving all relevant ministries and administrations, a large number of stakeholders and citizens throughout the state.
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"At best the avoidance of a diplomatic disaster": PIK assessment on COP29 closing
11/24/2024 - In the past two weeks, around 40,000 people from all over the world took part in the UN climate summit COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Key topics were the strengthening of global climate action, particularly with regard to the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, a new collective financing target to support developing countries in overcoming the climate crisis, and trusted and transparent global carbon markets to help countries collaborate to reach their climate goals. Here is what PIK’s scientific directors, Ottmar Edenhofer and Johan Rockström, say about the outcome of the conference.
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Global Recognition: PIK researchers again part of the top 1% of the world’s most cited scientists
11/20/2024 - For the seventh year in a row, scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are represented in the top 1 percent of the “Highly Cited Researchers”. The prestigious ranking, released by Clarivate Analytics' Web of Science platform, is determined by the frequency with which scientists' papers are cited by other researchers — a measure of global scientific impact. The 2024 edition features ten PIK researchers from different research departments, including PIK Director Johan Rockström.
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Integrating nature and climate risk scenarios for the financial sector
11/20/2024 - Combining climate and nature risks in a unified model offers the financial sector a more accurate view of their combined economic and environmental impacts. This is the result of a new report published by NatureFinance, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the University of Minnesota. The researchers developed a modelling framework that illustrates the interconnections between climate change and nature degradation. It emphasises the importance of addressing both in an integrated manner.
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COP29: PIK and KfW launch financing concept for carbon removals at world climate summit
11/11/2024 - Since the reduction of CO2 emissions is too slow to limit global heating to 1.5°C, a great deal of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere. Depending on the scenario, this will cost up to 2 percent of annual global economic output in 2050. This effort is economically imperative because the climate damage per tonne of CO2 is many times higher. However, this would overburden state budgets, so a financial architecture is needed to mobilise private capital. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and KfW, one of the world’s leading promotional banks, are now making a joint proposal at the World Climate Summit.
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PIK expertise at COP29 in Azerbaijan
11/11/2024 - The 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) takes place from 11 to 22 November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The conference brings together delegates from nearly 200 countries, including leading scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), to discuss the latest scientific findings and policy measures to mitigate the climate crisis.
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Newly published climate scenarios for the financial system: Timely, coordinated transition needed
11/08/2024 – Latest climate macro-financial scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System show that timely and coordinated adaptation of the economy to climate change is the most cost-effective strategy for mitigating the negative impacts of unrestrained climate change on Gross Domestic Product. The scenarios have been updated based on new climate and economic data, political agreements, and climate models. Many researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK contributed data from the latest climate models, including on land use, climate damage, and transformation risks.
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Pioneering Planetary Boundaries science as key to mitigating rising planetary risks
11/08/2024 - The Planetary Boundaries framework is a pivotal tool for tackling the climate crisis and safeguarding humanity’s future on Earth. For the first time, the full story of the Planetary Boundaries is now being told from its beginning: In a review, researchers highlight the growing influence of the PB framework across disciplines and its impact on society and policy. The article offers a unique overview of how the framework has been adopted across sectors. It also underscores how, 15 years after its initial proposal, PB science has become widely recognised as crucial for advancing the global sustainability agenda in an era of rising planetary risks.
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Ottmar Edenhofer reappointed to the Science Platform Climate Protection
11/05/2024 - Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), has been reappointed to the AScience Platform Climate Protection (WPKS). The policy advisory board supports the German government with scientific expertise and is starting its second working period this year. The most pressing tasks are the further development of the Climate Action Programme up to 2030 and the German long-term strategy for climate mitigation as well as the Climate Action Plan 2050.
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Three pathways to achieve global climate and sustainable development goals
10/30/2024 - Sustainable lifestyles, green-tech innovation, and government-led transformation each offer promising routes to make significant progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The team of researchers examined how these strategies could transform consumption and production across different sectors, identifying both benefits and trade-offs for enhancing human well-being within planetary boundaries. Contrary to the belief that the path to sustainable development is increasingly out of reach, the results show that humankind has a variety of pathways to depart from its current unsustainable trajectory.
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Green growth: 30 percent of regions worldwide achieve economic growth while reducing carbon emissions
10/29/2024 - More and more regions around the globe combine economic growth with reducing carbon emissions, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found. Their new study highlights the vital role of national climate actions in decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions. The analysis of data from 1,500 regions over the past 30 years showed that 30 percent have managed to lower their carbon emissions while continuing to thrive economically. While this accelerating trend marks significant progress towards achieving the Paris Climate Agreement, the authors caution that the current pace of decoupling is insufficient to meet the global climate target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
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10 New Insights in Climate Science 2024: Heat surges risk ecosystem collapse
10/28/2024 – A new report reveals the profound consequences of rising temperatures on both the environment and human health. The ‘10 New Insights In Climate Science’ highlight how surging global temperatures are not only threatening the stability of oceans and pushing the Amazon rainforest towards collapse, but also endangering maternal and reproductive health for future generations. The annual synthesis report has been launched by a consortium of more than 80 global experts from the social and natural sciences, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
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New attribution studies: Increasing effects of global warming on fire dynamics and public health
10/21/2024 - Climate change is increasingly influencing fire behavior worldwide and intensifying fire smoke, endangering public health from air pollution caused by fires. These are the results of two new climate change impact attribution studies, both published in Nature Climate Change, with involvement of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK. The first study finds 15.8 percent higher global burned areas over the period 2003 to 2019 due to climate change, intensifying fire activity especially in Australia, South America, Western North America and Siberia. These increasing fire dynamics offset the decrease in burned area due to land-use changes and increasing population density. Building on this, the second study examines how climate change is linked to a global increase in deaths from fire-related air pollution. Climate change increased these deaths from 669 annually in the 1960s to over 12,500 in the 2010s.
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New report: Global water crisis threatens more than half of world food production
10/17/2024 - The global water cycle is increasingly out of balance – with consequences for the world economy and humanity. This is the core message of a report by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water (GCEW), including Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The global water crisis could endanger more than half of global food production by 2050, the authors warn. This could result in a global median gross domestic product (GDP) decline of about eight percent. Lower-income countries may even face a decline in GDP of ten to fifteen percent. The Commission argues in favour of a new economics of water, which must redefine the way we value water. It also suggests five mission areas to counteract the existing water crisis.
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Johan Rockström receives Virchow Prize 2024
10/14/2024 - Johan Rockström, Scientific Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), was awarded the Virchow Prize 2024 at a ceremony in Berlin on October 12 2024. He was honoured for his comprehensive approach to safeguarding both human and planetary health as well as for the introduction of the concept of planetary boundaries. The resilience researcher shares the prize with Lucy Gilson, head of the Health Policy and Systems Division at Cape Town University and Professor of Health Policy and Systems at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C
10/09/2024 - Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary “overshoot” of 1.5 degrees Celsius, some climate damages triggered at peak warming will be irreversible, a study published in Nature shows. The earlier net zero emissions can be accomplished, the lower peak warming will be, and the smaller the risks of irreversible impacts, an international team of scientists, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), finds. They analysed future scenarios in which 1.5°C of global warming are temporarily exceeded and temperatures are brought back down in the long run.
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25 of 35 planetary vital signs at record extremes: 2024 State of the Climate Report
10/08/2024 - More frequent and intense extreme weather events, fossil fuel emissions at an all-time high: a new report led by an international team of scientists, including Johan Rockström and Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, states that climatic conditions have further worsened. The report analyzes the latest trends in a wide array of planetary vital signs. It also reviews recent climate-related disasters, spotlights climate-related topics, and discusses needed policy interventions.
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Mapping the overlay between climate and conflict risks: the Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index
10/08/2024 - A new tool helps to assess and map security risks arising from climate hazards: The Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was developed in collaboration with various partners by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It was presented at the Berlin Climate and Security conference and aims to support decision-makers in identifying and managing a wide range of risks related to aspects such as food and water security, health, peace and migration.
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Atmospheric teleconnections drive surge in summer heatwaves
09/27/2024 - Summer heatwaves are four times more likely in some areas in the Northern hemisphere due to atmospheric teleconnections, scientists have found. The study by an international research team, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), also reveals how long-distance linkages of weather events can account for nearly half of the interannual changes in heatwaves and accurately estimate heatwave trends in 80 percent of the land area in middle to high latitudes. As record-breaking heatwaves have a big impact on society and the economy worldwide, understanding these complex atmospheric dynamics is crucial for developing effective climate adaptation strategies.
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Earth exceeds safe limits: First Planetary Health Check issues red alert
09/24/2024 - The Planetary Boundaries Science (PBScience), a new initiative led by PIK director Johan Rockström and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), supported by the Planetary Guardians and other partners, has launched the Planetary Health Check (PHC), a first-of-its-kind scientific report and tool for the health of the Earth’s vital organs that serve as humanity’s life support system. The PHC combines pioneering Earth science, Earth observation data and multi-disciplinary thinking to quantify the planet’s health and inform solutions to reverse the impact of human activity on the planet.
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How a carbon central bank can turn Europe into a CO2 “eater”
09/17/2024 - The EU has decided to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. From then on, for every tonne of CO2 still emitted, one tonne would have to be taken out of the atmosphere. A European Carbon Central Bank could play a key role on the way there - and use market-based incentives to set the course for a net-negative emissions balance in the second half of the century, turning Europe into a CO2 “eater”, so to speak. Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), explained how this could work economically in the renowned “Thünen Lecture”.
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Global Warming's Economic Blow: Risks rise more rapidly for the rich
09/13/2024 - In a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), researchers analysed how erratic weather events, increasingly intensified by global warming, affect global production and consumption across different income groups.
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