Research Groups in Department Earth System Analysis
Earth as a planet is currently in an unusually long and stable interglacial period. The dominant force for change in the present anthropocene is human activity, which is altering the atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces. This activity consists not only of the emission of greenhouse gases but also of direct large-scale impacts on the land and marine biosphere.
The Research Department “Earth System Analysis” (RD1) organizes its work in the following six Earth System Science working groups:
Long-Term Trajectories (LTT)
The LTT group studies past climate variability (in the Quaternary) to improve our understanding of sensitivities, feedbacks and critical thresholds in the Earth system, with the aim of better predicting future Earth trajectories in the Anthropocene (from centuries to longer than 100,000 years). This is largely based on simulations with the fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X, which represents the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle.
Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
This (future, to be developed) working group will focus on ocean-ice-atmosphere research.
Past and Future Earth (PATH)
PATH investigates the state of the coupled Earth system in the past and in the future. We explore a wide range of research topics, including past climate change and biodiversity loss, the co-evolution of the climate and Earth's biosphere, the stability of Earth-system components in the past and the future, trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene as well as shifts in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns.
Terrestrial Safe Operating Space (TESS)
TESS conducts core research on the dynamics of planetary boundaries of the land surface —freshwater change, land-system change, nitrogen flows, biosphere integrity, climate change — and on maintaining a terrestrial safe operating space for humanity. This includes systematic quantification of critical interactions between the boundaries and impacts of their transgression, as well as the assessment of option spaces for stabilizing Earth with boundaries through agri-food system transformations and hydrological stewardship. Analyses are based primarily on simulations with the global LPJmL biosphere model, increasingly linked to POEM and other models and tools.
Ecosystems in Transition (EST)
EST investigates the influence of functional diversity and fire disturbance on global ecosystem functioning and for Earth System tipping elements such as the Amazon rainforest. Research addresses the impact of functional diversity, structural diversity and above- and belowground plant competition on plant co-existence and the stability of natural and managed land ecosystems. Ecosystems are analyzed using machine learning methods and applying model-data approaches to contribute to the biosphere planetary boundary. The group is evolving the flexible trait-based biosphere model LPJmL-FIT as well as the process-based SPITFIRE model, embedded into the LPJmL biosphere model, and contributes to the development and application of POEM.
Climate Extremes (CEX)
CEX aims to identify and diagnose the most crucial climate and weather extreme events, and to understand the physical mechanisms underlying local and global atmospheric circulation patterns that lead to extreme climate and weather events. Global teleconnection patterns and land–ocean–atmosphere interactions are analyzed to understand which mechanisms mainly contribute to the rise in extremes and to better understand their potential impacts on human activities and the environment. Special attention is given to those mechanisms that lead to amplifying, cascading or compound extreme events, which can have severe consequences for the climate system. To reach this goal, both observational data and simulation data obtained from state-of-the-art global climate models are employed.
