Data-based analysis of climate decisions

Our research group works to better understand the complex, dynamic, and multi-dimensional mechanisms through which climatic conditions affect human well-being and through which climate-related decisions are made, both individually and on a societal level. We analyse these systems through a variety of data-analytic methods, ranging from statistics, econometrics and machine learning to numerical modelling techniques. Using both historic data and projected data about the climate, socio-economic conditions, and development pathways, we are able to provide insight into the motivators of past climate-related phenomena as well as predict future climate-related decisions and societal developments.  

For more details, see below.

M.Sc. Theses

We regularly supervise M.Sc. theses. A strong quantitative background in mathematics, physics, economics or computer science is necessary; experience in statistics and/or geo-spatial data as well as programming skills (Python, R, or similar) are desirable; and physical presence at PIK is preferred. Close supervision from experienced researchers within the research group will assist in delivering a successful thesis as well as with your personal and technical development, possibly extending into a PhD position. Please send a CV and a short motivation letter, indicating which research area you are most interested in, to leonie.wenz@pik-potsdam.de.

Research foci

The economic costs of climate change

Assessments of the economic costs of climate change are a vital tool for guiding climate policy and achieving mitigation, but such assessments lack a comprehensive empirical basis. By employing state-of-the-art statistical methods (e.g. from econometrics, pattern recognition, detection/attribution) to historical data, we aim to uncover new links between climate and society with which we can assess the future costs of climate change. 

Furthermore, in collaboration with the MCC we are continuing to develop DOSE, an open-access Data-base of Sub-national Economic output. With this strong empirical foundation, we will continue to identify and quantify detailed climate impacts and to translate these into policy relevant insights.

Selected related publications

• Kotz, A. Levermann, L. Wenz. The economic commitment of climate change. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07219-0
• M.Tavoni, P. Andreoni, M. Calcaterra, E. Calliari, T. Deubelli-Hwang, R. Mechler, S. Hochrainer-Stigler, L. Wenz. Economic quantification of Loss and Damage funding needs. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2024)
• Kotz, S. Lange, L. Wenz, A. Levermann. Constraining the pattern and magnitude of projected extreme precipitation change in a multi-model ensemble. Journal of Climate (2023)
• L. Wenz*, R.D. Carr⁺, N. Koegel⁺, M. Kotz⁺, M. Kalkuhl (⁺contributed equally). DOSE – Global data set of reported sub-national economic output. Nature Scientific Data (2023)
• M. Kotz, L. Wenz, A. Levermann, The effect of rainfall changes on economic production. Nature (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04283-8.
• M. Kotz, L. Wenz, A. Levermann, Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2103294118
• M. Kotz, L. Wenz, A. Stechemesser, M. Kalkuhl, A. Levermann. Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth. Nature Climate Change (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5/
• M. Kalkuhl & L. Wenz. The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 102360 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360
• F. Ueckerdt, K. Frieler, S. Lange, L. Wenz, G. Luderer, A. Levermann. The economically optimal warming limit of the planet. Earth System Dynamics 10 (2019). https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019
• L. Wenz, A. Levermann, M. Auffhammer. North-South polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (2017). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1704339114.
• Leonie Wenz, Matthias Kalkuhl, & Maximilian Kotz. (2021). DOSE - The MCC-PIK Database Of Subnational Economic output (Version 1) [Data set]. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4681306

Climate change and inequality: facilitating a just transition

We are interested in investigating how climate change affects inequality between and within countries, and which factors contribute to differences in vulnerability. The long-term goal is to understand the links between economic inequalities and climate change and to thereby identify possible pathways to a just transition into a stable climate. This includes, for instance, studying effective gendered climate impacts.

Selected related publications

• R.D. Carr⁺, M. Kotz⁺, P.P. Pichler, H. Weisz, L. Wenz⁺ (⁺contributed equally). Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women's welfare globally. Nature Climate Change (2024)
  

The international trade network & climate change

International supply chains interconnect suppliers and consumers throughout the world economy. We use Multi Regional Input Output (MRIO) tables, large data sets capturing interdependencies in the global trade network, to explore these interconnections and their role in propagating climate damages and fostering climate cooperation. A recent focus in on the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

Selected related publications

• T. Beaufils, H. Ward, M. Jakob, L. Wenz. Assessing different European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implementations and their impact on trade partners. Nature Communications Earth & Environment (2023).
• T. Beaufils,  E.C. Berthet, H. Ward, L.Wenz. Beyond production and consumption: using throughflows to untangle the virtual trade of externalities. Economic Systems Research (2023).
• M. Jakob, S. Afionis, [...], L. Wenz, S.N. Willner How trade policy can support the climate agenda Science (2022) DOI: 10.1126/science.abo4207
• L. Wenz & S.N. Willner. Climate impacts and global supply chains: an overview [Book chapter] Handbook on Trade Policy and Climate Change [edited by M. Jakob] (2022).
• T. Beaufils & L. Wenz. A scenario-based method for projecting multi-regional input-output tables
  Economic Systems Research (2021). https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2021.1952404
• C. Otto, S. N. Willner, L. Wenz , K. Frieler, A. Levermann. Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 83 (2017). DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001.
• L. Wenz & A. Levermann. Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress-related losses. Science Advances 2 (2016). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501026.
• C. Bren d'Amour, L. Wenz, M. Kalkuhl, J.C. Steckel, F. Creutzig. Teleconnected food supply shocks. Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007.
• L. Wenz, S.N. Wilner, A. Radebach, R. Bierkandt, J.C. Steckel, A. Levermann, Regional and sectoral disaggregation of multi-regional input-output tables - a flexible algorithm, Economic Systems Research 27 (2015), DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2014.987731

Human behaviour in a warming world

Understanding the effects of the changing climatic conditions and weather extremes on human behaviour is essential for developing informed and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. In our research, we employ methods from machine learning and econometrics to analyse the unprompted behavioural changes in relation to environmental influences, leveraging for example the feelings that millions of users express on social media platforms.

Selected related publications

• Stechemesser & L. Wenz. Inequality in behavioural heat adaptation: an empirical study with mobility data from the transport system in New York City, NY, USA. The Lancet Planetary Health (2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00195-X
• A. Stechemesser, A. Levermann, L. Wenz. Temperature impacts on hate speech online: evidence from four billion geolocated tweets from the USA. The Lancet Planetary Health (2022). https://dio.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00173-5.
• A. Stechemesser, L. Wenz, M. Kotz, A. Levermann. Strong increase of racist tweets outside of climate comfort zone in Europe. Environmental Research Letters (2021). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac28b3
• A. Stechemesser, L. Wenz, A. Levermann. Corona crisis fuels racially profiled hate in social media networks. The Lancet - EClinicalMedicine (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100372

Sustainable decisions

In this area, our group focuses on the use of artificial intelligence methodologies and use of geospatial data to develop insight into climate-related decisions on a societal level. So far, our work has used tree-based algorithms to better understand the factors that determine the probability of solar panel installation, as well as temporal patterns of recovery from hurricanes. By means of satellite imagery and population data, we have quantified the number of people worldwide without access to infrastructure via roads (Sustainable Development Goal 9.1) and assessed the trade-off between closing these access gaps and achieving ambitious climate change mitigation targets (SDG-13). We have also analysed how the visibility of wind turbines affects property values.

Selected related publications

• W. Guo, L. Wenz, M. Auffhammer. The visual effect on wind turbines on property values is small and diminishing in space and time. PNAS (2024)
• K. Barton-Henry & L. Wenz. Nighttime light data reveal lack of full recovery after hurricanes in Southern US. Environmental Research Letters 16 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac998d
• K. Barton-Henry, L. Wenz, A. Levermann. Decay radius of climate decision for solar panels in the city of Fresno, USA. Nature Scientific Reports 11, 8571 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87714-w
• L. Wenz, U. Weddige, M. Jakob, J.C. Steckel. Road to glory or highway to hell? Global road access and climate change mitigation. Environmental Research Letters 15 (2020). https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab858d

Climate change in the media

A key factor influencing societal concern about climate change is media coverage such as articles in print and online newspapers or mentions in TV broadcasts. Using state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques (e.g. neural topic modelling) and statistical methods (e.g. from econometrics), we evaluate the prevalence of climate change media coverage, assess possible drivers such as socioeconomic and climatic events and aim to uncover the mechanisms by which media attention is incited.

Selected related publications

• J.H. Lochner, A. Stechemesser, L. Wenz. Climate summits have strong effect on climate change media coverage in Germany. Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01434-3