Figure 1. Yield forecast for 2022 in tonnes per hectare at the oblast level in Kazakhstan.
Wheat production in Kazakhstan is fundamentally contributing to food security in Central Asia providing a majority of the required wheat in the region. Timely and reliable estimates of Kazakh wheat production are important for food security planning and management. In this study, we developed a statistical weather-driven crop model that can successfully forecast wheat yields at the oblast level up to two months before the harvest (Fig. 1). The statistical model is run with publicly available weather and yield data and requires low computational power, making it easily replicable. The forecast model can be used as a replenishment to currently applied forecasting methods supporting countries in Central Asia to meet their food demand.
The paper can be accessed here.
