From 12-14 November the German Red Cross organised an international conference in Berlin bringing together humanitarian actors, NGOs and researchers to discuss recent advances in the field of anticipatory action in advance of disasters, with a focus on financial instruments such as forecast-based-financing. Humanitarian actors like the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies are increasingly looking to act before disasters happen, to better reach affected communities and reduce the impacts of disasters, both in terms of physical damage and economic losses. Early action has proven to be highly cost-effective compared to mere reaction to disasters, requiring however sound scientific forecasting skills to correctly predict the time, place and intensity of future extreme events such as floods, storms and droughts.
As part of the conference, PIK researchers from the working group “Adaptation in Agricultural Systems” organised a session on “Early warnings of food insecurity to allow more time for action: what is already possible?” Bernhard Schauberger and Jascha Lehmann presented state-of-the-art forecasting methods for weather variables and crop yields, which can enable early warnings of food shortage. Such (sub-)seasonal forecasts already months in advance of the harvest can be highly useful for farmers and humanitarian actors to better plan their agricultural season and provide additional inputs, if needed. During world café discussions, led by Christoph Gornott and Lisa Murken, participants in the session highlighted the need for earlier and more reliable forecasts, to give humanitarian organisations more confidence to issue timely warnings and act early.
