Carlos’ thesis addresses the critical challenges climate change poses to water resources in the tropical Andes, with a focus on Peru and Ecuador. The primary goal was to investigate hydrological dynamics and their responses to climate change, overcoming major data limitations like the scarcity of reliable climate inputs and the need for a regionally adapted hydrological model.
The study introduces RAIN4PE, a high-resolution precipitation dataset for Peru and Ecuador, generated by integrating precipitation data from multiple sources (satellite, reanalysis, and rain gauges), along with terrain elevation and streamflow data. Additionally, region-specific climate model simulations (BASD-CMIP6-PE) were developed, offering much more reliable climate projections. These new datasets provide a stronger foundation for more accurate regional hydrometeorological applications and climate-change impact assessments.
To simulate hydrological processes effectively, Carlos adapted and improved the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the region, incorporating an enhanced river-floodplain module and a novel multi-objective calibration framework. This framework integrates remote sensing vegetation data and hydrological signatures for more accurate simulations of streamflow and vegetation dynamics.
The results reveal crucial insights into the present and future water distribution in the tropical Andes. The Andes-Amazon transition region is identified as a hotspot for precipitation and water yield. Climate projections indicate increased water availability and flood risks in Andean regions, while water stress is expected in the Amazon lowlands. These findings highlight the need for tailored water management strategies to address both flood risks and water scarcity.
Carlos' work provides valuable resources for research and practical applications, with RAIN4PE and BASD-CMIP6-PE already being utilized in regional water resource management projects.
The thesis is supported by four publications:
- Fernandez-Palomino, C. A., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-J´acome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Aybar, C., et al. (2022). “A Novel High-Resolution Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Peruvian and Ecuadorian Watersheds: Development and Hydrological Evaluation”. In: Journal of Hydrometeorology 23.3, pp. 309–336. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0285.1
- Fernandez-Palomino, C. A., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Vega-J´acome, F., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., and Bronstert, A. (2024). “High-resolution climate projection dataset based on CMIP6 for Peru and Ecuador: BASD-CMIP6-PE”. In: Scientific Data 11.1, pp. 1–14. DOI:10.1038/s41597-023-02863-z
- Fernandez-Palomino, C. A., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Vega-J´acome, F., and Bronstert, A. (2020). “Towards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru”. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal 66.1, pp. 59–74. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1846740
- Fernandez-Palomino, C. A., Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Vega-J´acome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Gutiérrez, R. R., and Bronstert, A. (2023a). “Pan-Peruvian Simulation of Present and Projected Future Hydrological Conditions Using Novel Data Products and CMIP6 Climate Projections”. In: SSRN. DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.4602668
